Democrats and GOP likely to keep leadership in place

Democrat Nancy Pelosi, the House minority leader who has been in charge of the caucus since 2002, believes she can garner the votes to regain the speakership, which she held from 2007 until 2011.

Reps. Steny Hoyer, D-Md., and Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., are expected to maintain their long-held No. 2 and No. 3 posts in the House. Hoyer is currently minority whip and Clyburn is assistant minority leader; the two expect to be majority leader and majority whip, respectively, next year.

House Republicans also stand ready to reappoint most of their current leadership team, GOP aides said.

Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., has the votes locked up to become House minority leader in January while Majority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La., is all but guaranteed to win the position of minority whip, leadership aides said.

If the familiar lineup in both parties wins the leadership elections this month, it would defy the grumbling from small but important House factions, particularly within the Democratic caucus, who have sought to elevate fresh faces to the top party positions.

“I think it’s time for that generational change,” Rep. Linda Sanchez, D-Calif., the No. 5 House Democrat, said over the summer.

Pelosi and her leadership team have been in place for at least dozen years. Pelosi is 78, Hoyer is 79, and Clyburn is 78.

Pelosi’s election is likely, but not guaranteed. About a dozen House Democrats say they won’t support Pelosi’s bid for speaker, and another dozen incoming freshmen have called for new leadership — though only a few of those newcomers have said their opposition is firm.

“Lots of ardent naysayers lost,” a top Democratic aide told the Washington Examiner, referring to some of the Democratic candidates who pledged to oppose her. “That’s the most important point.”

Pelosi can afford to lose a few votes as long as most of the undecided House races fall to the Democrats, as expected. She’ll need a simple majority of 218 votes to win the speaker’s gavel in the House floor vote on the opening day of Congress in January.

Democrats are expected to control more than a dozen seats above the 218 threshold.

“She’s got plenty of room to maneuver,” a Democratic aide said.

On the Republican side, a faction of more than two dozen members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus who were withholding their support of McCarthy have lost much of their leverage now that the GOP will be relegated to the minority.

The House GOP will elect its leadership team on Nov. 14 in a closed-door meeting.

McCarthy will only need the support of a simple majority of the GOP conference to win, rather than the 218 that would have been required if he had faced a floor vote for speaker.

His sole opponent, House Freedom Caucus founder Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, will have the backing of those two dozen conservatives but not much else, providing an easy path to victory for McCarthy.

“We have the votes and we are ready to go,” a GOP source told the Washington Examiner.

One reason for his and Pelosi’s advantages: Both are top fundraisers for their party candidates.

Pelosi raised nearly $130 million in the 2018 election cycle and is viewed as largely responsible for returning Democrats to the majority. McCarthy’s haul totaled $60 million for the cycle.

The two leaders are also considered their parties’ most able negotiators. Pelosi secured major funding increases for Democrats in the fiscal 2018 and 2019 spending bills while McCarthy can tout a close relationship with President Trump as well as his role as majority leader in passing more than 80 percent of the GOP’s legislative priorities in the 115th Congress.

Most Republicans also view McCarthy as the leadership candidate best positioned to help the GOP win back the majority in 2020, which would put him in line to become the next speaker.

“Fifteen of the seats we lost were seats won by President Trump in 2016, so there is a real opportunity for us to come back in two years,” a Republican leadership aide said.