President Donald Trump plans to recertify Iranian compliance with the Iran nuclear deal before the congressionally mandated deadline to do so on Monday, according to four sources with knowledge of his thinking on the issue. The decision, which continues to provide Iran sanctions relief for their alleged fulfillment of the terms of the deal, comes after an intense internal debate about the pros and cons of recertification and just days after leading hawks on Capitol Hill urged the president to refuse certification.
As a candidate, Trump vowed “dismantle” the Iran nuclear deal. (See correction.) In a speech before AIPAC in March 2016, Trump said: “My number one priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran.” Aides describe his support for recertification as grudging and caution that he could change his mind before the deadline next week.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has been the leading advocate for recertifying the deal, as the Trump administration already did once back in April. Tillerson believes that because the deal was front loaded with benefits for Iran, leaving it now would reduce the ability of the international community to seek compliance at a time when Iran is already reaping rewards for simply signing the deal. Secretary of Defense James Mattis backs Tillerson on recertification, while Steve Bannon has argued for abandoning the agreement. National security adviser H.R. McMaster is no supporter of the deal but has sought to facilitate debate among the principals rather than pushing the president in one direction or another. CIA director Mike Pompeo, an outspoken critic of the deal when he was in Congress, remains skeptical.
On Tuesday, four Republican senators wrote Trump in an effort to persuade him to decline to recertify. “We write to urge that you not certify that U.S. sanctions relief for Iran is in the national security interests of the United States or that Iran is complying with the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” reads the letter, signed by Senators Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, David Perdue, and Ted Cruz. “In April, you certified Iran’s compliance for the first 90-day period of the Trump administration. That certification was understandable, given the need to grant time for the interagency review of the JCPOA that you described in the certification letter you sent to House Speaker Paul Ryan. But now as we near the end of another 90-day review period, U.S. interests would be best served by a sober accounting of Iran’s JCPOA violations as well as the regime’s aggressive and destabilizing behavior.” The administration has begun making calls to notify lawmakers of the president’s inclination to recertify.
Opponents of the deal say the president’s decision to recertify is best seen as a temporary one, meant to buy more time before a final decision later this year. Trump remains skeptical of the Iranian regime and their adherence to the terms of the JCPOA. “I think they are doing a tremendous disservice to an agreement that was signed. It was a terrible agreement. It shouldn’t have been signed,” said Trump at a press conference with Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentilioni on April 21, after recertifying the deal the first time. “They are not living up to the spirit of the agreement, I can tell you that.”
Sources tell THE WEEKLY STANDARD that the interagency Iran policy review, led by senior members of the National Security Council, will be finished by late summer. The real battle over recertification will happen between the completion of that comprehensive review and the next recertification deadline, in mid-October. In the meantime, Iran hawks have their eyes on Boeing’s deals to supply leading Iranian airlines with new airplanes—deals valued at more than $22 billion.
The Treasury Department has final approval over these kinds of deals with Iran, and some members of the Trump administration hope that Secretary Steve Mnuchin will use this authority to scuttle those agreements.
“We will use everything within our power to put additional sanctions on Iran, Syria and North Korea to protect American lives,” Treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin told lawmakers in May. “Both in the case of Boeing and Airbus, there are licenses that will be required and they are under review.”
Update: The State Department confirms that the administration will continue to “adhere” to the JCPOA while it continues to review and finalize its Iran policy.
“The Trump administration is currently conducting a comprehensive review of our Iran policy,” said a State Department spokesperson in an email. “Once we have finalized our conclusions, we will meet the challenges Iran poses with clarity and conviction. The Trump Administration has made clear that at least until this review is completed, we will adhere to the JCPOA and will ensure that Iran is held strictly accountable to its requirements.”
Correction, 7/17/17: An earlier version of this article quoted President Trump saying he would “tear up” the Iran deal. While Trump said “My number-one priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran” and Mike Pence said “we’re going to rip up the Iran deal,” there is no record of Donald Trump saying he would “tear up” the deal. We regret the error.
