In 1853 Czar Nicholas I, in a conversation with the British ambassador, reportedly coined the phrase “sick man of Europe” to describe the decaying Ottoman Empire. The corrupt and debt-ridden Ottomans soon dragged England, France, and Russia into conflict in Crimea, just as the czar had feared. The slow, painful demise of the Ottoman Empire then involved the great European powers in a series of Balkan crises, culminating in the 1914 assassination in Sarajevo that triggered World War I.
Kim Jong-un’s recent reemergence with cane in hand, after a prolonged period of absence from the limelight, seems the perfect embodiment of North Korea’s position as the “sick man of Asia.” Just as a prosperous and powerful Europe grappled for decades, ultimately unsuccessfully, over what to do about its weakest link, the strong and prosperous Pacific powers have faced, so far unsuccessfully, the dilemma of a weak but nuclear-armed North Korea. A series of diplomatic formulae, including the Agreed Framework, the Six-Party Talks, and, most recently, the aborted Leap Day Agreement of 2012, have all come to naught. Pyongyang, like Constantinople, seems on perpetual life support, gasping for air but never quite expiring.
The transition to rule by the third generation of the “Baekdu bloodline” (descendants of North Korea’s founder and anti-Japanese guerrilla fighter Kim Il-sung) in December 2011 has been anything but smooth. The “juche” state was left in the shaky hands of the inexperienced, vain, and insecure Kim Jong-un, who lacked the extended period of apprenticeship that his father Kim Jong-il enjoyed before he assumed the reins of power.
Kim Jong-un’s vanity has been on display in the promotion of costly yet impractical construction projects that would be worthy of a pharaoh. These public works involve the mobilization of the masses—soldiers and students in addition to laborers—in “speed campaigns” to achieve hasty completion according to Kim Jong-un’s whim. The projects, including an elaborate ski resort, a refurbished amusement park, and an aquarium with a dolphin show, have done little to address the chronic malnutrition and meager living standards of a people isolated in an island of poverty in the midst of the most economically dynamic region of the world.
The projects, ostensibly undertaken to promote tourism, reflect the young general’s narcissistic lifestyle, as vividly described last year by retired basketball star Dennis Rodman. Rodman had made a visit with Kim Jong-un to the latter’s pleasure island, complete with horseback riding, free-flowing alcohol, and yachts.
The indulgent lifestyle probably also explains the use of a cane by thirty-something Kim Jong-un. He allegedly suffers from a series of debilitating illnesses—including obesity, gout, diabetes, and high blood pressure—usually associated with individuals twice his age. The report that he was near death or had even died during his prolonged absence from the public eye, however, was not credible. Even Henry VIII, who engaged in a similarly lustful and lavish lifestyle that ravaged his body, managed to hang on until the age of 55.
Further, the trip to South Korea by a high-level North Korean delegation for the closing ceremony of the Asian Games in Incheon in early October, in the midst of Kim Jong-un’s mysterious disappearance, belied the rumors of a possible coup. None of the inner circle of National Defence Commission vice chairman Hwang Pyong-so, Vice Marshall Choe Ryong-hae, and Kim Yang-gon, a secretary of the Korean Workers’ party (KWP), would have left the North Korean capital if credible coup rumors had indeed been circulating.
Still, it has been quite noticeable that in almost three years in power, Kim Jong-un, who once lived as a student in Switzerland where he was reportedly an avid fan of Western sports teams and rock music, has not dared to leave the country. This indicates a degree of insecurity and is in marked contrast to his father, Kim Jong-il, who is thought to have traveled three times to China and once to the Russian Far East during the last two years of his life. Kim Jong-un’s lack of an invitation to visit Beijing, North Korea’s sole ally in the world, has reached the point of embarrassment—especially after President Park Geun-hye of rival South Korea was invited on a state visit to Beijing in 2013, which was reciprocated by a visit to Seoul of Chinese president Xi Jinping this summer.
Despite the comment in September by China’s ambassador to South Korea Qiu Guohong, as reported by South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency, that a visit by Kim Jong-un to China “is likely to be made down the road,” no visit seems possible at least for the rest of this year. While Kim Jong-un recovers from ankle surgery carried out by a team of European doctors, according to news reports quoting South Korea’s National Intelligence Agency (NIS), Xi Jinping is preoccupied with preparations for the November 10-11 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Beijing.
Then there is the question of the increasingly frosty relations between the two erstwhile allies. Kim Jong-un’s father was always careful to treat China, North Korea’s economic and energy lifeline, with a degree of respect, even traveling to China in May 2011, although in frail health, to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between China and North Korea. Kim Jong-un, however, has treated China with barely veiled contempt, causing Beijing to lose face when he went forward in early 2013 with a nuclear test despite Chinese admonishments to cease and desist. He then publicly purged and executed his uncle, a key Chinese ally, after condemning him for “economic crimes” linked to a foreign power—obviously a reference to China.
The present nadir in the Sino-North Korean relationship was highlighted in a report in South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper on the “chilly relations” reflected in a recent message from Pyongyang to Beijing. “North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made no mention of friendship in a congratulatory message to China marking its National Day on Wednesday (October 1),” the paper noted. “The omission hints at how badly ties between the allies have deteriorated.” This was followed on October 29 by a reassertion by Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi of Beijing’s commitment to “denuclearizing North Korea,” according to Yonhap.
Wang Yi’s statement was seen as a reaction to U.S. Forces Korea commander General Curtis Scaparotti’s recent statement to reporters in Washington that he “believes” that North Korea has the capabilities to build nuclear-tipped missiles, although he has no evidence to confirm that assumption. Wang’s remarks also appeared to be an attempt to frame China’s position on the ongoing issue of the nuclear-armed “sick man of Asia” before the APEC summit, where it is likely to be a major agenda item.
The APEC summit in Beijing this year will probably dance around the North Korean nuclear issue, as was the case at past summits. Regional eyes will instead be focused on the “history issue” and whether President Xi Jinping, in the traditional Chinese role of host, offers a handshake to Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe. Abe brought this issue to the forefront once again by his visit last December to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, which contains the spirit tablets of convicted war criminals. In the fixation over history, Kim Jong-un will likely once again get a pass on his nuclear arsenal.
As the European heads of state fretted but ultimately did little about the “sick man of Europe” until disaster engulfed the continent, so the Asian powers at APEC will likely continue to fret about the “sick man of Asia” but take few coordinated actions. Kim Jong-un, cane in hand, will continue to hobble forward with his nuclear arsenal, made possibly even more menacing with delivery capability in the form of nuclear-tipped missiles.
If the spoiled and belligerent actions of the “sick man of Asia” lead to regime instability in Pyongyang, Beijing does have Kim Jong-un’s older half-brother Kim Jong-nam waiting in the wings in exile under its protection. Periodic diplomatic calls by the United States and others for a “complete, verifiable, and irreversible” denuclearization of North Korea, though, remain a pipe dream. North Korea, thus, will continue to slowly spiral downward toward ultimate disintegration, like the Ottomans a century ago, with one important difference—the sick man in this case is armed with nuclear weapons.
Dennis P. Halpin, a former adviser on Asia policy to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is a visiting scholar at the U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS (Johns Hopkins) and a consultant with the Poblete Analysis Group.
