Well, we’ve endured 2015, the next to last year of the Obama administration. It’s not been without damage to the country—both to its constitutional fabric and its standing in the world. But endured we have. One more year to go.
The point, though, per William Faulkner, is not just to endure but to prevail. America can prevail if today’s conservatism prevails—by which we mean a conservatism that incorporates most that is good about yesteryear’s liberalism and today’s conservatism, and that is also willing to think and act anew, as our case is new. And conservatism can most easily prevail if the political party that is the home of conservatism prevails—the Republican party.
In fact, the prospects for victory in 2016 aren’t bad. Barack Obama began 2015 with (in the Real Clear Politics averages) a 43 percent approval rating and a 52 percent disapproval rating. He ends the year in almost exactly the same place, with a 44 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval. He has no upward momentum going into his last year. It’s hard for a party to retain the White House when only 44 percent of Americans approve of the performance of that party’s president.
Especially when most Americans also have an unfavorable view of that party’s candidate. Hillary Clinton began the year with a 54 to 41 percent favorable rating. She ends the year upside down—at 42 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable. This reversal of Clinton’s numbers may be the year’s most significant development with respect to prospects for 2016. And it’s a heartening development for Republicans.
Tests of Clinton matched up against her likely opponents have followed the same trajectory. Take the three most likely GOP nominees: At the beginning of the year, Clinton defeated Marco Rubio by 12 percentage points; now she trails him by 2 points. At the beginning of the year, Clinton crushed Ted Cruz by 15 points; now she leads by less than 1. At the beginning of the year, Clinton led Chris Christie by 10 points; now she leads him, too, by less than 1. Hillary Clinton is an eminently beatable Democratic nominee. Republicans should thank Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and many others for choosing to forgo the race.
On the Republican side, two candidates of whom big things were expected at the beginning of the year, Rand Paul and Jeb Bush, have fizzled. That too is a good thing—unambiguously so in the case of the second Paul, somewhat sadly so in the case of the third Bush. But in both their cases, we could say the system—that is to say, the judgment of the Republican electorate—worked.
So in 2015, from a political point of view, all seemed to be going reasonably well. Only vague difficulties remained, like faraway clouds on a beautiful summer sky. These soon took the shape of Donald Trump—who became in midyear the frontrunner for the Republican nomination and who has remained the frontrunner ever since, despite never having been much of a conservative and despite not being remotely equipped to be president of the United States.
This is a bit of a problem. But in the storied ranks of political demagogues Donald Trump, though talented, is a second-rater. If Republican politicians and conservative leaders can’t overcome the challenge of Trump, they’re probably not up to the challenges of governance.
One clue to overcoming Trump may have been inadvertently provided by him this week. At a press conference, a reporter mentioned the name of this journal’s editor to Trump—with no trigger warning!—and Trump let loose. It culminated in this Ciceronian put-down: “[Kristol’s] lost all self-respect. He’s very embarrassed even to walk down the street.”
Readers of this magazine should be assured that its editor continues to walk, unembarrassed, down the mean streets of Washington, D.C., and McLean, Virginia. But Trump may be on to something when he speaks of self-respect. A conservative movement that would turn to Donald Trump out of frustration or exasperation or desperation or titillation would be a movement lacking in self-respect. A political party—a party with a respectable lineage, the party of Lincoln and Grant, of Theodore Roosevelt and Coolidge, of Reagan and Cheney—that would turn to the likes of Donald Trump would be a party lacking in self-respect.
Is it too much to hope that in 2016 conservatives and Republicans can demonstrate the self-respect of people who remember their heritage and are loyal to their principles? Self-respect is the path to victory. And from victory would follow the chance to truly make America great again.
