NOT EVEN the most determined Pollyanna would claim that the reconstruction of Iraq has gone smoothly. Although many early reports of trouble were exaggerated (see Baghdad Museum, looting of), instances of civil unrest continue, including protests and even a few riots. Neither weapons of mass destruction nor Saddam and his sons have been found. Islamism seems to be gaining ground in some areas. Remnants and supporters of the Baathist regime continue to sabotage infrastructure and attack American and British soldiers. Twenty-two American troops have been killed in attacks since President Bush declared an end to major combat on May 1. Indeed, every day seems to bring front-page news of something going wrong in Iraq. But that isn’t the whole story. In the first opinion poll of liberated Iraq, Dr. Sadoun Dulaimi of the Iraq Center for Research & Strategic Studies found that 65 percent of Baghdadis want U.S. troops to stay for now; only 17 percent want them to pull out immediately. Clearly the United States is doing something right. In fact, if you read past the front pages, you find many signs of improvement in the four major areas of reconstruction: providing security, improving public utilities, rebuilding civil society and laying the groundwork for democracy, and getting the economy moving.
First, security. Coalition forces have brought in at least 32 of the coalition’s 55 most wanted Iraqis. This includes the June 16 capture of Abid Hamid Mahmud al-Tikriti, the most wanted man in Iraq after Saddam and his two sons. Coalition forces have also launched countrywide sweeps, seizing weapons and capturing hundreds of lower-level Baath loyalists.
Equally important, the United States is training Iraqis to take over policing and security. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld noted in his June 18 press briefing that thousands of Iraqi police officers are back at work. And on June 23, U.S. administrators announced the creation of a national army. The Iraqi army–expected to have 12,000 troops within a year and 40,000 within three years–will be “professional, nonpolitical, militarily effective, and truly representative of the country,” according to Walter Slocombe, head of security and defense for the Coalition Provisional Authority. The coalition has also announced that dismissed soldiers will receive a stipend, a move designed to neutralize ex-military resentment of coalition authorities. And Jordan’s King Abdullah has indicated a willingness to provide police officers to train and conduct joint patrols with Iraqi police.
Moreover, some security problems that had been previously reported never, in fact, materialized. Despite reports that several tons of uranium had gone missing from the Tuwaitha nuclear research facility southeast of Baghdad, the International Atomic Energy Agency recently announced that nearly all of Tuwaitha’s uranium was accounted for.
Second, Iraq’s public utilities and hospitals are performing relatively well and, in some cases, improving. Critics must remember that utilities were in a decrepit state long before the war. Maj. David Hylton, the Army’s principal officer for civilian affairs, recently told World magazine, “What we’re realizing is that Iraq doesn’t produce enough power for Baghdad. Saddam used to forcibly black out other cities to keep the lights on here.” Because the provisional authority has not continued this practice, Baghdad has less power than it did before the war. But Basra–Iraq’s second-largest city–now has power 24 hours a day for the first time since 1991. Indeed, Rumsfeld recently pointed out that cities throughout the northern and southern regions now have better electrical service than they’ve had in over a decade. And even Baghdad, as Thomas Friedman noted in his June 18 column, is getting about 18 hours of electricity per day.
There is no functioning phone system in Iraq, but elsewhere there are improvements afoot. Long lines for gasoline, ubiquitous a month ago, have disappeared, and garbage is, once again, being collected. The water supply is more uneven: Rumsfeld announced that it is operating at about 80 percent of prewar level, but some areas–including Basra–have “more and better water, cleaner water, than existed prior to the conflict.” Upon returning from a tour of western and northern Iraq, Mark Steyn reported in The Spectator that “everywhere I went I drank the water and, aside from mild side-effects like feeling even more right-wing than before, I’m fine and dandy.”
And while “fine and dandy” may not describe the general state of health in Iraq, neither can it be said that the country is suffering an acute health crisis. While many hospitals face shortages of medicine and equipment, this is nothing new: Saddam diverted most of the U.N. money meant for health care into weapons programs and palace construction. Now, however, U.S. troops and Iraqi doctors are working together to vaccinate children and treat the sick, using supplies donated from abroad. Steyn reported that none of the hospitals he visited were even close to full.
Third, civil society is coming to life in Iraq. Perhaps most important is the process of de-Baathification–not simply the purging of former party officials from positions of power, but also the attempts by the Iraqi people to come to terms with the atrocities of Saddam’s regime. A recent Knight Ridder story notes that Baghdad markets are selling videos chronicling Saddam’s torture chambers, and a vendor says that they are selling thousands of copies. Victims of torture–those who were lucky enough to survive Saddam’s dungeons and the families of those who weren’t–are free for the first time to tell their stories. A grocer now hangs outside his store a picture of his brother, executed in prison, with the words, “He was arrested by the criminal Saddam Hussein.” In cities and towns throughout Iraq, Baath propaganda and offices have been destroyed. Only by such a thorough repudiation of the past can the ground be cleared for a healthy democratic culture.
And there are signs that such a culture is starting to develop. The Washington Post recently noted that “dozens of daily and weekly newspapers have sprung up in the capital since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in April, a raucous rush of unfettered expression that is utterly new to this country, and rare for any part of the Middle East.” There are new Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish papers; democratic, Communist, and Islamist papers; and even a satirical weekly. The Post estimated that Baghdad alone has 70 publications, with new ones sprouting every week. And it’s not just the print media that are growing: satellite dishes, banned under Saddam, are popping up, and walls once decorated with portraits of Saddam now sport political slogans of all stripes.
As a democratic culture begins to take shape, democratic institutions are slowly being introduced. Political parties are forming, and L. Paul Bremer III, the U.S. official in charge of civilian administration in Iraq, has begun selecting 25 to 30 Iraqis for a council that will appoint temporary cabinet ministers and select delegates to a constitutional convention. Bremer recently told the Washington Post, “I am committed to establishing a democracy here. But to do this right, it will obviously take time.”
Of course establishing a democracy can be tricky business. One challenge Bremer faces is to avoid handing over power carelessly, lest it end up in the hands of people unfit to wield it. Another challenge is to encourage the emergence of democratic norms–to firm up the legitimacy of democratic institutions. On this front, the outlook may be better than expected: The Toronto Globe and Mail reports, “Things are actually quite peaceful right now on the Sunni-Shia front. Imams from both sides met and agreed that the sects should join hands for the wider good of Iraq, at least in the short term.”
And it is not just politics and government that are coming to life–so is the public square. Restaurants, shops, and schools have reopened, and street life is reviving. As security continues to improve, civil society will become more vibrant.
Finally, there is hope on the economic front, as well. The U.N. Security Council lifted sanctions on May 22, and Iraq began exporting oil again exactly one month later. By the end of the year, officials hope to return oil production to prewar levels (about 2 million barrels a day). In a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, Bremer predicted that Iraq will export more than $5 billion worth of oil in the second half of this year. He has proposed that ordinary Iraqis get a share of oil revenues, either via dividend payments (à la Alaska) or public pensions. Giving every Iraqi a stake in the national oil revenues will encourage the growth of a middle-class nation–the kind of nation where democracy is most likely to thrive.
Bremer has also proposed other sensible economic policies, including the privatization of state-run industries (along with the creation of a social safety net to aid displaced workers), the establishment of a strong system of property rights, reductions in state subsidies, and the promotion of foreign trade. The sooner Iraq’s economic and trade policies are liberalized, the better it will be for the Iraqi people.
The liberation of Iraq might benefit non-Iraqis as well. Democratic ideas have a way of leaking across borders, spelling trouble for authoritarian institutions.
Iraq could still turn out badly. There is a tremendous amount of work to be done–to establish law and order, to improve infrastructure, and to nurture a democratic society into existence. The peace is by no means won.
But it is by no means lost, either. In fact, the glass may be a little over half-full.
Josh Chafetz is a graduate student in politics at Merton College, Oxford, and the co-editor of oxblog.blogspot.com.
