After a few months off and a shaky start, Roger Federer looks ready to swing and glide on the grass courts of Wimbledon. He’ll need every talent he can muster to win a title that almost always makes a veteran fail.
At first glance, Federer’s recent numbers make this look like nonsense. Yes, Federer played terrible in his first grass match of the season, losing to Tommy Haas, a former top pro who, at age 39, rarely enters tournaments and was ranked 302nd in the world. It was a worrisome defeat, but Federer recovered in Halle, Germany and won his ninth career title there—without losing a set. He showed his best strokes in the final by thumping a young talent, Alexander Zverev, 6-1, 6-3.
Romps like that one astound: It is ridiculous that Federer at 35 years, can still dominate—and do so consistently. He has a 24-2 record this season and he almost won both of the matches he lost (he held a match point in each of them). Even for Federer, it’s an excellent start to a season.
“On a grass court, your confidence of what you’ve done earlier in your career is such a huge help,” says Pam Shriver, the former pro and ESPN analyst. “He certainly is going to be my pick.”
But winning Wimbledon would be a feat. Because in general, men in their 30s stumble at Wimbledon. A man named Alfred Gore won Wimbledon at age 41, back in 1909. Since then, America’s Arthur Ashe set the modern record in 1975 by winning at age 31. (He shocked a 22-year-old Jimmy Connors, who at the time looked invincible.) Federer won Wimbledon in 2012 at age 30, putting him right behind Ashe. Since then he has battled in two finals and one semifinal without winning the championship.
Federer has won Wimbledon seven times, tied for the most ever in men’s tennis. But these days he is more at risk to the size and power of opponents. There are several big pros right now with smashing serves and forehands, such as 28-year-old Marin Cilic (6’6”) and 26-year-old Milos Raonic (6’5”). They can hit hard enough to essentially prevent Federer from playing his game. And while he can beat one of them, it’s something else to run the gauntlet. (Federer beat Cilic in a five-set match here last year and then lost to Raonic.) Another concern: Best-of-five-set matches are longer, and tougher on Federer’s back and legs, even though he seems to be in excellent shape.
Eventually, someone older than Ashe is going to win Wimbledon. And Federer’s current chances couldn’t be much better. The other top players are in their 30s, too, and right now they’re either struggling or not in condition for grass courts. Andy Murray, the 30-year-old ranked No. 1 at the moment, has been inconsistent this season (he has won two Wimbledon titles in his career). Rafael Nadal, a 31-year-old two-time champion, struggles with his knees on grass. Novak Djokovic, a former No. 1 and now age 30, has not won a major title since last year’s French Open. And Stan Wawrinka, the 32-year-old winner of three majors, is as predictable as the weather at Wimbledon: One second there’s the sun, and then presto, clouds collide and the sky pours.
For Federer, the danger isn’t these top-ranked potential champions, but lower-ranked players who excel on grass and look to be in fine shape. Feliciano Lopez is 35-years-old, like Federer. And he’s playing the best tennis of his career. Lopez beat Cilic in a stellar final at Queen’s Club in London. And though Cilic lost there, he looked stronger than he has in years. His serve is one of the best and more effective on grass, and he can hit every other shot with depth and pace. (Cilic and Federer could only meet in the final.)
One of the top champs—Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray—has won every Wimbledon since 2003. But this year might well be different.
