FOR A PRESIDENT who is (allegedly) the lamest of lame ducks, George W. Bush had a pretty good month of May. Not quite a merry month of May. Certainly not a Lerner-and-Loewe-like lusty month of May. But a pretty good month, and perhaps a sign of better things to come.
To wit:
Congress extended, and the president signed, the wildly successful supply-side tax cuts on interest and dividend income originally passed in 2003. The new tax rates are now in force until 2010, providing helpful certainty for the economy and the markets, and forcing Democrats in this year’s congressional elections, and in the 2008 presidential election, either to accept a core element of Bush’s economic policy, or to be for raising taxes.
Speaking of the economy . . . last week the Commerce Department revised first quarter growth up to 5.3 percent. Not too lame. Then we learned that new home sales had risen in April, suggesting a reasonably soft landing for the housing market. And gas prices even began to drift down. How much longer can people talk themselves into thinking the economy’s in bad shape?
They can talk themselves into a frenzy about illegal immigration, of course. But on this issue, the Senate managed–contrary to the conventional wisdom of late April–easily to pass a sensible and comprehensive immigration reform bill. And House Republicans now show some signs of coming to realize that talk radio is not always the best source of policy guidance. Enough of them may come to realize that passing legislation they regard as flawed would be better than going home to the voters having achieved nothing. So Bush could have an immigration reform signing ceremony to look forward to in the fall.
Meanwhile, on the personnel front, new chief of staff Josh Bolten seems to have improved White House performance, and Tony Snow took over as press secretary to rave reviews. Michael Hayden was easily confirmed by the Senate as CIA Director–as all the hoopla over warrantless wiretapping and data mining of phone records came to nothing. The imminent departure of John Snow as Treasury Secretary–though Snow has actually done a creditable job–will allow for the announcement of a fresher face (perhaps Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez) sometime soon.
The administration also got reenergized on the judicial front, shepherding Brett Kavanaugh through to confirmation to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. If a Supreme Court seat comes open in a month, the administration seems prepared, with (sources say) a short list of well vetted and well qualified conservative candidates.
The silly flap over the FBI search, pursuant to a judicial warrant, of Rep. William Jefferson’s office serves as a reminder that, for all the talk of the dire consequences of the Abramoff scandal for the GOP, congressional scandals are not limited to the Republican party. Indeed, Jefferson’s refusal to yield to Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s plea to quit his position on the Ways and Means committee suggests some disarray in Democratic ranks.
In the meantime, the May 15 deadline for signing up for the Medicare prescription drug benefit passed with some 90 percent of eligible seniors enrolled, and most of them telling pollsters they’re pretty happy. Given early rumblings that the program might be a nightmare of red tape, this is good news for the administration.
What about the world, and the war? There is a new Iraqi government, and we saw an impressive display of resolution on the Iraqi front by President Bush and Prime Minister Blair at their press conference last Thursday night. The president seems to have resisted calls to draw down troops precipitately, correctly understanding that he will get no credit for losing Iraq with 100,000 troops rather than 135,000. The bad news is that there has been no apparent reconsideration of military strategy. There has been no attempt to take advantage of the existence of a new Iraqi government to launch a more aggressive counterinsurgency, with additional U.S. troops, in order to help put the Iraqi government and its army on a path to real progress and victory.
As for Iran, the State Department seems to remain in charge of U.S. policy, and unwilling to come to grips with the urgency and gravity of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s challenge. Iran and Iraq are very likely to define the historical judgment on the Bush presidency. So these foreign policy splotches on the picture of a rosy May painted above are important. But if the president realizes he really isn’t a lame duck, and that he has two and half years left, two and half years in which his foreign policy can either succeed or fail–he can begin to turn his attention to reenergizing that foreign policy in June.
–William Kristol
