President Donald Trump opened his statement of policy on Afghanistan and South Asia by offering a rare allowance that he had changed his mind about an issue—namely, about withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan. “My original instinct was to pull out, and historically I like to follow my instincts,” Trump said. “But all my life I heard that decisions are much different when you sit behind the desk in the Oval Office.”
While insisting that he does not seek to do “nation-building” and that American support for the Afghan government is “not a blank check,” the president nonetheless concluded of Afghanistan, “The consequences of a rapid exit are both predictable and unacceptable.” That’s a remarkable change for Trump, even if the likely increased deployment of 4,000 troops to Afghanistan is not.
As one senior administration official pointed out, the strategy Trump announced at Fort Myer on Monday is a “comprehensive” and “regional” strategy, not confined to Afghanistan and the American war effort there. Trump spoke extensively about the need for Pakistan, America’s sometimes-partner, to change its behavior in harboring terrorist groups and sympathizers.
“We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars at the same time they are housing the very terrorists we are fighting. But that will have to change, and it will have to change,” he said. “It’s time for Pakistan to demonstrate its commitment to civilization, order, and peace.” Will that mean making the just under $1 billion in annual aid to Pakistan conditional on that country’s cooperation? A senior administration official says the United States will be “examining our assistance programs” and evaluating whether to use that as leverage.
That tough rhetoric toward Pakistan may be the most important consequence from Trump’s announcement if Islamabad takes it seriously.
One more point from the president’s speech that undercuts what an administration official said before Trump’s remarks: The Obama administration strategy on Afghanistan included the push for a negotiated peace between the Afghan government and the Taliban, which the Trump official suggested could be the case. “The ultimate goal is to encourage a political settlement in Afghanistan and to convince the Taliban that it cannot win on the battlefield and that the only option is to negotiate a settlement with the Afghan government,” said the official. “That is the ultimate goal of the strategy.”
But at Fort Myer, Trump himself seemed a tad more skeptical of this prospect. “Someday, after an effective military effort, perhaps it will be possible to have a political settlement that includes elements of the Taliban and Afghanistan, but nobody knows if or when that will ever happen,” he said. “America will continue its support for the Afghan government and the Afghan military as they confront the Taliban in the field.”
What About Russia?—One player in the South Asia region Trump did not mention in his address was Russia. The Vladimir Putin government has been supportive of the Taliban, both rhetorically and likely by providing weapons and materiel. I asked a senior administration official about Russia’s role.
“We believe they’ve taken a short-sighted approach in supporting the Taliban,” said the official. “There’ve been some reports of weaponry and such going to the Taliban. And they’ve also played an unhelpful role in trying to undermine the U.S.’s role there, claiming that the U.S. is supporting ISIS, which is absolutely ridiculous. But this is all aimed at sort of undermining the U.S. position in the region. I think they are trying to take advantage of what they perceive as a vacuum.”
But as in the Middle East, Russia’s relationship with the United States is complicated. The Trump administration views Putin’s Russia as a problematic partner in defeating ISIS in Syria and Iraq.
Mark It Down—“We will not talk about numbers of troops or our plans for further military activities.” —President Trump on Afghanistan, August 21, 2017.
Photo of the Day
President Trump looks directly at the sun during the solar eclipse of August 21, 2017. Getty Images
Campus Watch—My colleague Alice Lloyd has an article up about overreach by the University of Southern California’s Title IX enforcement office. A male student athlete is accused in the school’s kangaroo court of abusing his student athlete girlfriend—even though the girlfriend insists the alleged abuse never happened. It’s an outrageous story about the abandonment of due process, and it will make you mad.
President Trump will travel to Phoenix Tuesday for a campaign-style rally, and the state GOP is distancing itself from the whole event.
The Arizona Republic reports that Republican governor Doug Ducey will meet Trump on the tarmac when Air Force One touches down in Arizona. But Ducey will not attend the rally at the Phoenix Convention Center.
“The governor looks forward to welcoming President Trump to Arizona when he arrives at the airport,” Ducey’s spokesman Daniel Scarpinato told the Republic. “Gov. Ducey’s focus has been working with law enforcement toward a safe event in downtown Phoenix for all those involved and in the area.”
Trump has not been shy about criticizing lawmakers in his own party, and Arizona’s two Republican senators have attracted special attention. The president has excoriated John McCain for casting the vote that killed Obamacare repeal, and has praised a primary challenger against Jeff Flake, whom he called “toxic,” “weak on borders,” and “a non-factor in the Senate.”
The president may also announce his intent to pardon former Maricopa County sheriff (and prominent Trump supporter) Joe Arpaio, a polarizing former law enforcement officer whose hardline immigration enforcement tactics ran afoul of Arizona law.
2018 Watch—Flake’s sole challenger (so far) in next year’s Republican primary in Arizona is Kelli Ward, who unsuccessfully challenged John McCain in the GOP primary in 2016. CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski took a look at Ward’s new TV ad, which includes a shot of Flake shaking hands in the Oval Office with the president—President Obama, that is. “Arizona deserves far better,” says the voiceover as the two men shake hands.
Kaczynski’s sleuthing revealed the Flake-Obama encounter Ward uses in her ad came from the 2011 signing of a bill in honor of the federal judge who was killed in Tucson during an attack on Congresswoman Gabby Giffords’ event. Flake, then a congressman, was joined in the Oval Office by Arizona senator John McCain and four other House members, including three additional Republicans. In Ward’s ad, in fact, you can see Republican House member Trent Franks, a conservative in good standing, in the background of the photograph.
News you can use: “Why are there so many gadgets to help us eat corn?”
Song of the Day—“Unbelievable” by EMF.
