The Australian Open, like the rest of the Slams, has its own character. The temperatures often transition rapidly from hot days to cool nights. The fans are festive and loud, and cheer from close seats in tight stadiums that are even noisier if the roof closes. And then there’s the attitude of the players. They’re generally much happier and more laid back—and not just because the tournament treats everyone so well. No, the real reason is that at the Australian Open everything starts anew. Had a miserable 2017? Now you can make it up in a big way—right at the beginning of the year. Fallen in the rankings? Now you can start to climb them. There’s hope and ambition and the thought that this year will be better than the last.
At this year’s Australian Open, no one is looking for the possibility of rebirth more than Novak Djokovic. The 30-year-old Djokovic had a miserable 2017, with shocking defeats, a loss of confidence, and, finally, enough pain in his right elbow that he had to stop playing after Wimbledon in July. Djokovic is back now, but much remains unclear. His right elbow recently hurt him again, but he says it has gotten better in recent days. His new serve—he holds up his right arm, rather than dropping it down at first, like he used to—seems nice. But it hasn’t been tested in a significant match. More than anything, though, his attitude seems positive. And that’s a good start.
Because Djokovic is going to need everything he can get. He could face the exorbitantly-talented shotmaker Gael Monfils in the second round and Alexander Zverev—who might be the Next Big Thing—in the fourth. If he gets as far as the semifinals, he could have to play Roger Federer. That would be three top-tier opponents before even sniffing at the final. Not an easy road.
Federer—and this is truly astonishing—looks like the favorite as the tournament begins. He’s healthy and hitting the ball incredibly well and not looking at all like a 36-year-old. He’s now ranked second in the world and wouldn’t have to face Rafael Nadal, the top seed, until the final. And unlike with Nadal, there’s little question about Federer’s health right now. Nadal, meanwhile, has struggled with his right knee since the end of last season and his overall physical condition is unclear.
The third seed, Grigor Dimitrov, is, after years of struggling, playing the best tennis of his life. Dimitrov looked like a Slam contender once before, but he’s at a different level now. He starts with an easy first round and could find trouble in the fourth round, if Nick Kyrgios—insanely talented and insanely unpredictable—is on top of his game. (Kyrgios just won the Brisbane International, beating Dimitrov in the semifinals.)
There are other men who could contend for the title in Melbourne, but for various reasons their prospects are tougher to predict. Dominic Thiem, seeded fifth, has suffered from a virus and struggles on hard courts. Stan Wawrinka, who is returning from knee surgery, won the title in 2014, but doesn’t seem fully in shape just yet. (And has had trouble with his shoulder, too.) And then there’s Juan Martin del Potro, who finished last year strong, but always seems to run out of steam in the late rounds.
American men haven’t won a Grand Slam singles title since Andy Roddick in 2003, but there is a player now who maybe—just maybe—seems like he has a chance: Jack Sock. He had a strong performance at last year’s ATP Finals and is currently ranked eighth in the world. Still, there’s reason to be concerned: Sock’s form—and attitude—did not look great in a recent New Zealand tournament.
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The women’s field is even more unpredictable than last year, since the defending champ, Serena Williams, remains out of contention. Unlike the men’s side, there are literally dozens of women who could walk away with the title. Don’t be surprised no matter what happens.
Simona Halep has looked the best so far, carrying with her the world’s #1 ranking, a tournament victory to start the year and, seemingly, strong training leading into this season.
Angelique Kerber will be dangerous. After a rough 2017, she seems motivated again, and in shape as usual. Kerber won the Australian in 2016 and could well do it again.
Venus Williams will be the woman most Americans are rooting for. Last year, she had three fine chances to win her first major since Wimbledon in 2008. She lost to her sister in the Australian Open final and then fell apart in the Wimbledon final. At the U.S. Open, she lost in the semifinals, to Sloane Stephens, in three sets. Williams was on the doorstep all of last year, which is a remarkable feat in itself considering her age (she’s 37). This tournament could be another solid chance.
How about Petra Kvitova? Sure, why not? How about CoCo Vandeweghe, a semifinalist at both the Australian Open and U.S. Open last year? Again, it’s possible. Caroline Wozniacki, now ranked No. 2, looks to be in top form and has come oh-so-close to several Grand Slam titles; she might still get there. You could even see Julia Goerges as a possibility, considering that she rides a 14-match win streak into the tournament, with won her last victory coming against Wozniacki a week ago.
For the Americans, there’s also a strong chance for Madison Keys. Keys had trouble with her leg in the U.S. Open final when she lost to Stephens, 6-3, 6-0. If Keys is healthy in Australia, she could be a force. Few players have as much power and her serve is one of the best in the field. As for Stephens, she’s already gone with a first-round defeat—a remarkable fall considering she won last year’s U.S. Open. Stephens has now lost eight matches in a row.
Last, but not least, is Maria Sharapova. She seems to have worked hard in the off-season, and badly wants to win a title post-suspension. Her draw is tricky and she could face Kerber early. But Sharapova, unlike most of the women’s draw, has won this tournament before. Also unlike the rest of the field, Sharapova always thinks she can win, no matter the opponent or score.
At a moment when anything is possible, that’s a valuable skill.
