All the attention has been on Georgia this special election season. But the race for Montana’s open House seat is set to conclude first, with a former GOP gubernatorial candidate trying to stave off an upset bid Thursday from a Bernie Sanders-backed musician and small business owner.
Greg Gianforte is the favorite to hold onto Interior secretary Ryan Zinke’s vacated spot in the lower chamber. The tech entrepreneur, who sold his business several years ago to Oracle for $1.5 billion, lost to Democratic incumbent Steve Bullock by four percentage points last year for the governorship. This campaign is a different animal in a state known for them: Bullock is an experienced statewide officeholder, and , Gianforte’s House challenger, has never run for elected office. The race has national implications; Donald Trump won Montana by 20 percentage points in the general election.
But there are variables at play: Grouping the polls from other special House campaigns in Kansas and Georgia, the present environment doesn’t appear hospitable to GOP candidates. (Montana polling has been sparse, but it’s thought Gianforte has only a modest edge.) The anecdotal evidence from town halls across the country in recent months—full of upset constituents challenging Republicans on health care and probes of the president’s alleged Russia ties—appears significant. And there’s no telling who will turn out, or who will be particularly energized, for an oddly scheduled election: a Thursday in late May.
Roll Call was circumspect in its forecast updated Monday:
A national GOP strategist told Politico that “Gianforte has an edge, but it’s not going to be a slam dunk.” That outlet published an examination of the race’s highly negative tone—and whether voters have tuned out at this point, after the 2016 presidential contest.
More here.
