In cyber, we know Russia and China are the bad guys. That’s where the certainty ends

The nature of the overall cyberthreat is evolving rapidly and in surprising directions, they say.

“The threat tempo is magnified by the speed at which technology evolves,” said Frank Cilluffo, director of the George Washington University’s Center for Cyber and Homeland Security.

Cilluffo and a panel of analysts and technologists testified before a House Homeland Security subcommittee last week on cyberthreats.

The House Intelligence Committee also tackled the issue in an open hearing with leaders of the U.S. intelligence community.

Between the government and private-sector experts, there was plenty of unanimity. Russia and China remain the most potent and sophisticated cyberadversaries.

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testified that the Russians are “assuming a more assertive cyberposture” by targeting critical infrastructure systems and conducting aggressive espionage campaigns “even when detected and under increased public scrutiny.”

Clapper said “the jury is still out” on whether the heralded agreement on cyber last fall between President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping is bearing fruit.

That agreement was designed to restrict cyberespionage activities aimed at gaining commercial advantage.

In prepared testimony, the intelligence community said, “Private-sector security experts have identified limited ongoing cyberactivity from China, but have not verified state sponsorship or the use of exfiltrated data for commercial gain.”

Clapper declined to elaborate in the public portion of the hearing.

Iran and North Korea make up the next tier of cyber threatactors, the government and private-sector experts agreed.

“What they lack in capability, they make up for in intent,” Cilluffo commented, noting that these countries are far less restrained than the bigger players in terms of adhering to international norms or fearing retribution.

Terrorist groups also have a driving interest in using cyberspace as an attack platform, but have yet to develop significant capacity, according to the experts. Cilluffo warned about the equivalent of “drive-by shootings” in cyberspace by terrorists.

“Terrorist groups such as ISIS may currently lack the capability to pose a major cybersecurity threat to the U.S.,” House Homeland Security cybersecurity subcommittee Chairman John Ratcliffe, R-Texas, said at his panel’s hearing. “But given the vast resources the group has amassed, developing or purchasing sophisticated cybertools is not out of reach.”

All of the experts, government and private, warned that criminal organizations have tremendous capabilities in cyberspace. These gangs operate for monetary gain, sometimes as guns-for-hire and sometimes as purveyors of those “sophisticated cybertools.” They have no qualms about selling cyberattack kits to groups with the worst possible intentions.

The potential surfaces for cyberattacks continue to expand exponentially.

Clapper cited potential vulnerabilities in the Internet of Things, saying household appliances, web-connected vehicles and other everyday products could be used for attacks and espionage.

And he asked lawmakers to ponder the potential cyberrisks associated with “artificial intelligence” advances.

In case anyone needed additional reasons to worry about the “brave new world,” the U.S. intelligence chief tossed in “augmented reality” and “virtual reality” products as another likely target for attack.

Clapper praised last year’s cybersecurity law as an important step forward — and the private-sector experts agreed.

But they all see that law, which encourages information-sharing and other cyberpolicy developments, as a first step in a long, perilous journey.

Charlie Mitchell is editor and co-founder of InsideCybersecurity.com, a premium news service from Inside Washington Publishers. He is also author of “Hacked: The Inside Story of America’s Struggle to Secure Cyberspace,” coming this spring from Rowman and Littlefield.