Lakewood, New Jersey
HOW BAD is voter apathy in New Jersey? Consider two numbers. In a statewide poll released on July 20, some 64 percent of those surveyed could not name either of the two Senate candidates who will be on the ballot in November. Only 23 percent could name both: incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez and Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr. “Isn’t that stunning?” asks a Kean aide.
Maybe in a normal state. But not in the swamp of cynicism that is New Jersey, which today rivals even Louisiana in its reputation for sleaze. Jim McGreevey, the infamous “gay American” and disgraced former governor, was just the most salacious example of a Jersey tradition: politicians leaving office a few steps ahead of the sheriff. In recent years there was the Camden mayor who went to jail; the Irvington mayor who went to jail; the Hainesport mayor who went to jail; the Asbury Park mayor who went to jail; the Hoboken mayor who went to jail; the Atlantic City mayor who . . . you get the picture.
In a state where bribery seems embedded in the political culture, fighting “corruption” makes for a good soundbite. But does it play well at the polls? Tom Kean Jr., a state senator from Westfield, hopes so. His stump speech includes a clarion call for ethics reform and a blistering attack on Senator Menendez, whom Kean paints as a “Hudson County party boss.” (For non-Garden Staters: Hudson County is to graft what Sonoma County is to wine.) At times his spiel sounds like boilerplate. But Kean is also an ardent supporter of the Bush tax cuts and a noisy critic of New Jersey’s “out-of-control tax policies.”
Those are his twin themes–ethics and taxes–and they’re more interwoven than you might think. “People know that corruption costs them more in the taxes they pay,” says Kean. (One example: In December 2004, acting governor Richard Codey announced that McGreevey’s legal foibles near the end of his tenure had set back New Jersey taxpayers almost $159,000.)
In general, Democrats take the tax spat seriously but scoff at Kean’s assault on corruption. “The ethics thing doesn’t fly,” says Bob Smith, a veteran Democratic state senator. He notes that Republican Doug Forrester made corruption a signature issue in the 2005 governor’s race and lost by 10 points. But Republicans believe they can cast Menendez as an avatar of dirty machine-style politics in Hudson County. They also point to some dubious friends, including his old law partner, a convicted cocaine trafficker named Manny Diaz, and his campaign finance chairman, Joseph Simunovich, who is now under a state ethics probe.
Menendez aides claim Kean is trying to “Swift Boat” their man with smear tactics. They rail against a movie, still in production, about Menendez’s service under former Union City mayor William Musto, who went to prison in 1982 for racketeering. Menendez testified against his old boss and has (justifiably) worn that as a badge of honor. The film apparently tells a different story. When the New York Times first reported this in May, writer Josh Benson compared the project to Stolen Honor, the 2004 movie that raised questions about John Kerry’s Vietnam heroism.
A Kean aide admits there is “a project in development,” which the campaign is funding. “Literally hundreds of people have come forward with stories about Bob Menendez,” says the aide. But the movie might never be completed or released. It is still just one potential “option” for highlighting the Menendez record.
In Congress that record has been reliably liberal and partisan, save for Cuba policy. (Menendez, 52, is the son of Cuban immigrants.) Before entering the Senate in January 2006–to fill the seat vacated by Democratic governor Jon Corzine–Menendez served for 13 years in the House. On the campaign trail he touts his opposition to the Iraq war and disparages Kean as a “Bush Republican.” Running against Bush is the Democratic strategy du jour for 2006, but it makes particular sense in New Jersey, where the president tends to be even more unpopular than he is nationwide.
Of course, Kean is hardly a “Bush Republican.” He is decidedly more liberal on social issues, favoring abortion rights and federal funding of embryonic stem cell research while eschewing the Federal Marriage Amendment. He also breaks with Bush on Social Security reform and oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Kean does, however, robustly defend the Bush tax cuts, and says he would have voted to confirm Supreme Court Justices John Roberts and Samuel Alito. On Iraq, he insists the decision to topple Saddam Hussein was correct and rejects an “artificial timeline” for withdrawal. Menendez, by contrast, was one of only 13 senators who voted for the (failed) Kerry amendment, which set July 2007 as the deadline for “redeployment” of U.S. troops.
If the Iraq war hurts Kean–and it does–the tax issue helps him. New Jersey already shoulders one of the most draconian burdens in the country, and it’s about to get worse. Earlier this year Governor Corzine rolled out nearly $2 billion in new taxes to help fix a $4.5-billion deficit. Republicans howled and Democrats went into combat mode, culminating in a recent government shutdown. In the end, Corzine rammed through his budget, but only after a bloody skirmish among Democrats.
Kean, 37, has pounced on the tax increase, well aware that the last Republican to win statewide, Governor Christine Todd Whitman, campaigned relentlessly against a tax hike in 1993. Will it work this time? Perhaps. The Kean-Menendez race is now essentially a dead heat, with a July 17 Quinnipiac poll giving Kean a two-point edge. But many attribute that to Kean’s biggest strength: his name.
“There is no shortage of politicians in this state who would give their right arm for that name,” says New Jersey GOP chairman Tom Wilson. “There is a brand identity already established for the Kean family.” Before chairing the 9/11 Commission, Tom Kean Sr. was arguably the most popular governor in state history. A centrist Republican who speaks like a Brahmin, Kean père won reelection in 1985 with 68 percent of the vote, including 62 percent of the black vote. His son’s poll numbers are now “artificially inflated,” says a Menendez aide, by “people who know the Tom Kean name.”
That may be true. But if 64 percent of voters can’t identify either candidate, surely Kean’s name recognition will give him a boost when these voters tune in. What Kean should worry about is money. As of June 30, Menendez held a commanding $5 million fundraising lead. This is huge in New Jersey, where candidates must buy airtime in the pricey New York and Philadelphia media markets. It’s not that the national GOP is ignoring Kean; both Vice President Dick Cheney and First Lady Laura Bush have headlined rallies for him. Some Republicans cite the difficulty of raising cash in a heavily Democratic state. (The last time New Jersey elected a Republican to the Senate was in 1972.) Others blame the Kean campaign for ineptitude.
This gets to the broader rap against Tom Kean Jr.: that he is a political lightweight. Democrats have created a website, www.toojuniorforjersey.com, that mocks Kean as a frat boy and a Bush crony. Whereas Menendez is a seasoned campaigner and a hardnosed partisan, the youthful Kean is still a novice. He often speaks in shaky platitudes and may have trouble rousing conservatives, who account for roughly one third of registered Republicans. (In New Jersey, low voter turnout usually helps Democrats.)
The real test for Kean will be in the suburbs of Bergen, the state’s most populous county, which borders on the Hudson River. Bergen has recently trended strongly Democratic, says Ingrid Reed, director of the New Jersey Project at the Rutgers-Eagleton Institute of Politics. “That’s the county you have to win.”
Ultimately, Kean must make this race a referendum not on George W. Bush and Iraq, but on Democratic tax policies. He must divert at tention off the national GOP and onto New Jersey. He must raise more cash to reach an apathetic electorate after Labor Day. Perhaps above all, he must get lucky and bank on his family pedigree. As one Republican puts it, “You can’t discount the Kean name. You just can’t. It’s a gold standard.”
Duncan Currie is a reporter for THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
