FRVENT ENDORSEMENT OF A MODIFIED flat tax by Jack Kemp’s commission on tax reform was no surprise, but what Kemp said afterwards was. Kemp, known for his ideological boldness but political caution, declared he’ll endorse a Republican presidential candidate before the Iowa caucuses on February 12. Scott Reed, the ex-Kemp aide who now manages Senate majority leader Bob Dole’s campaign, was floored. So was former congressman Vin Weber, who stays in close touch with Kemp. And so was everyone in the presidential camp of Steve Forbes, whose supply-side economic ideas virtually match Kemp’s.
Six weeks ago, Kemp’s announcement would have stirred minimal interest. But that was before Forbes made taxes the paramount issue in the GOP race and surged into second place behind Dole by exploiting that issue. Suddenly the Kemp commission’s report gained stature — a media throng showed up for its release on January 17 — and Kemp the premier Republican tax cutter became a hot property again. Dole, threatened by Forbes, wants Kemp’s public support. But Forbes thinks Kemp is beholden to him.
Should Kemp side with Dole, it will culminate an extraordinary minuet over the past year. Dole had been leery of Kemp for two decades, mostly because of the latter’s boundless zeal for tax cuts. But friends of Kemp, including Reed, persuaded Dole to appoint the panel on taxes. The tacit deal was that Kemp, as head of the commission, would get to shape Republican tax policy and maybe get a job in a Dole administration — in exchange for endorsing Dole or at least not joining another presidential contender. Problems arose. Dole feared the commission would produce a tax proposal he couldn’t live with, and he was irritated with Kemp’s public pleas for Colin Powell to enter the GOP race. In the end, though, Dole was pleased with the commission’s report.
Dole has a reasonably strong case: If Kemp wants to be a factor in the next Republican administration, mostly likely a Dole one, he’d better get right with Dole now. Otherwise, he’ll wind up as “a trophy on the shelf at the Heritage Foundation,” says a Kemp associate. Kemp’s chances of being Treasury secretary may be slim, but there are other influential roles he could play, particularly in placing tax-cutting allies inside a Dole White House and cabinet. Already, the commission has prompted Dole and House speaker Newt Gingrich to agree that the current tax code should be totally replaced by, in Dole’s words, “a fairer, flatter, simpler approach to taxes.” That, says Kemp, “is a big step.”
Forbes’s claim to Kemp is based on friendship, ideological agreement, and a promise. The two have worked together as leaders of Empower America, the Republican think tank. And in his magazine, Forbes has promoted Kemp’s ideas for years. Then last April in Phoenix, after Kemp reiterated his intention not to run, he offered to back Forbes if he ran for president. Jude Wanniski, a Kemp adviser and Forbes backer, said Kemp’s “promise to Steve would have been mooted if Steve got out there, was inept, and got laughed off the stage.” But since Forbes has mounted a strong camlSaign, “Jack really has no choice. He should be endorsing ASAP” And not Dole. Wanniski has told Kemp if he sides with Dole, “You’ll be one of a zillion guys on the bandwagon.” Besides, he argues, Dole really favors austerity, not tax cuts.
Kemp doesn’t deny he committed himself to Forbes: “I said I’d support him just about like that.” However, “A lot has happened since then,” Kemp adds. For one thing, Dole created the commission, put Kemp in charge, and embraced its recommendations. Also, Dole warmed to a flat tax. “I have no problem with the single rate if it’s fair,” Dole said. Though the commission didn’t endorse a specific rate, Kemp personaly favors 19 percent. But he had kind words for Forbes’s 17 percent fiat tax. “It would lead to an explosion of economic growth and that is the number one goal,” Kemp said after releasing his report.
Whatever he decides, Kemp won’t announce it until after the Super Bowl on January 28. He wants to consult Gingrich, Weber, Wanniski, Bill Bennett, and others. His choice appears to be between Dole and Forbes. Senator Phil Gramm, tbr one, isn’t pursuing Kemp, insisting that endorsements don’t matter at this point. “If I decide to endorse Dole,” Kemp says, “I’d go to Steve and tell him why the ground has shifted [since last April]. If I decide to endorse Forbes, I’d go to Dole and tell him man to man why I’m doing it.”
Until then Dole and Forbes will continue to endure what a Kemp adviser calls “the Kemp experience.” It goes like this: Just when you think he isn’t important anymore, he is, and you need him. Kemp is frustrating to work with and, now out of offce, lacks a power base in the party. But he has a national following, and Dole and Forbes are convinced his endorsement is a prize worth winning.
by Fred Barnes
