Ukraine in line to get consolation prize at NATO summit

In an interview that aired in full yesterday, President Joe Biden said inviting Ukraine to join now would split the alliance and risk all-out war with Russia. “I don’t think it’s ready for membership in NATO,” Biden told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria. “I spent, as you know, a great deal of time trying to hold NATO together.” A formal invitation, he argued, would play into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goal of breaking NATO.

Instead, Biden has told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky he favors an approach that would extend security guarantees to Ukraine until there is a ceasefire or peace agreement. “One of the things I indicated is the United States would be ready to provide while the process was going on, and it’s going to take a while, while that process was going on to provide security, ala the security we provide for Israel, providing the weaponry and the needs, capacity to defend themselves if there is an agreement.”

ZELENSKY: ‘I DON’T WANT TO GO TO VILNIUS FOR FUN’: Zelensky, who made a symbolic visit to Snake Island on the 500th day of the war Saturday, says he’s hoping the security guarantees will be announced tomorrow.

“We are working on security guarantees,” Zelensky told ABC’s Martha Raddatz. “We would like to have all the decisions to be made during this summit. In this case, it’s obvious that I’ll be there, and I’ll be doing whatever I can in order to, so to speak, expedite that solution,” he said, adding, “I don’t want to go to Vilnius for fun if the decision has been made beforehand.”

“It’s all a matter of political will just to find the proper wording and invite Ukraine,” Zelensky said. “It would be an important message to say that NATO is not afraid of Russia. Ukraine should get clear security guarantees while it is not in NATO.”

In an interview with CNN last week, Zelensky said Ukraine’s eventual membership in NATO hinges on the support of the United States, as the leader of the alliance. “The U.S. decides today whether Ukraine will get invited to NATO. This is today’s situation, and it’s a fact,” he told CNN’s Erin Burnett. “Those who have their doubts look only at President Biden, and he knows that this depends on him. It will be his decision.”

THE CASE FOR NOW: Ukraine makes the argument an invitation does not mean Ukraine would become a NATO member before the war is over, but rather would send a strong signal that the commitment for membership is real.

“What we are definitely ready for is for invitation,” said Oksana Markarova, Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S., on CBS. “We are discussing the invitation. You know that, in 2008, the open-door policy towards Ukraine had been adopted. We want not only the door to be open; we want to be invited to come in.”

Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker, who was former President Donald Trump’s special representative for Ukraine, said Biden’s reservations are another sign of weakness. “@POTUS has it backwards,” Volker tweeted. “It is not that #Ukraine is not ready for #NATO membership. It is NATO that is not ready to admit Ukraine. And that will come back to haunt.”

“Agree with @kvolker,” chimed in retired Army Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. Army Europe, on Twitter. “We seem to be scared of our own shadow. Our reluctance is oxygen for the Kremlin.”

But on CNN, Rep. ​​Michael McCaul (R-TX) said security guarantees could send the same strong message to Putin, if they are solidly backed by the alliance. “Just to talk about it does provide deterrence against Russia. But we have to be careful in the way we do this. Now, remember, back in the Budapest agreement, they gave up all their nuclear weapons to Russia, and then we threw them under the bus with that agreement.”

“The issue of ascension into NATO is a whole different issue,” McCaul told CNN’s Jake Tapper. “I think it’s way too premature to be talking about that.”

JOE BIDEN SAYS US AT AN ‘INFLECTION POINT’ AHEAD OF APPEARANCE AT NATO SUMMIT

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HAPPENING TODAY: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda hold a joint press conference ahead of the Vilnius leaders’ summit. Stoltenberg is expected to give an update on his discussions with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as eleventh-hour negotiations continue in an effort to win Turkey’s support for Sweden to join NATO. Erdogan is also expected to meet with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson today and with U.S. President Joe Biden tomorrow on the sidelines of the summit.

Biden has dangled the sale of F-16s to Turkey as an incentive to overcome Turkey’s objections, while Hungary has signaled it will be ready to approve Sweden’s membership once Turkey does.

ALSO TODAY, BIDEN IN UK: Biden is in London for meetings with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and King Charles III. Biden met with Sunak this morning at 10 Downing Street, and in the afternoon, will discuss climate issues with King Charles at Windsor Castle.

No news conferences are scheduled during the brief visit before the president leaves for Vilnius in the late afternoon.

UKRAINIAN ‘COUNTEROFFENSIVE AT RISK OF FAILURE’: GOP TRIO PUSHES BIDEN TO SEND LONG-RANGE MISSILES

THE CLUSTER BOMB DIVIDE: The U.K. is one of the 120 nations that have signed a convention banning the production, use, or export of cluster munitions, so it’s not clear if the subject came up when Biden sat down with Sunak today.

But on the Sunday shows, there was a clear spit with Republicans generally supporting Biden’s decision to send the controversial weapon to Ukraine. Here’s a sample:

“I support the use of these weapons. Russia has been using them all along. I think this fills a gap that the folks need in Ukraine in their battle. I wish they would have had them sooner,” Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, said on Fox News Sunday.

“The Ukrainian military is running low on ammunition … We’re at a critical stage in this war and for Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. And so I think getting them as much ammunition and weaponry as possible is critically important.” Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, said on CNN.

“I have some real qualms about it, when there’s an international prohibition, and the U.S. says, ‘but here’s a good reason to do something different.’ It could give a green light to other nations to do something different as well … I do appreciate that the Biden administration has really grappled with the risks and reached agreements with Ukrainian military about using these munitions in a way to dislodge Russian military while minimizing risks of Ukrainian civilians.” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), member of the Armed Services Committee.

“We are not a signatory to the Geneva Convention on cluster munitions. Neither is Ukraine. And, by the way, Russia is dropping with impunity cluster bombs in Ukraine … All the Ukrainians and Zelensky are asking for is to give them the same weapons the Russians have to use in their own country against Russians who are in their own country. They do not want these to be used in Russia. They want these as self-defense to use against Russians in their own country of Ukraine. I don’t see anything wrong with that,” said Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, on CNN.

“No, cluster bombs should never be used. That’s crossing a line. Once you see what takes place — we know what takes place, in terms of cluster bombs being very dangerous to civilians. They don’t always immediately explode. Children can step on them. That’s a line we should not cross,” said Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) on CNN.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) was not on a Sunday show, but tweeted, “The Biden administration sending cluster munitions to Ukraine may be a war crime. These are dangerous weapons banned by Congress. It is an accelerated aggression that will kill many people. Shame on our leaders that are obsessed with funding and fueling war and death in foreign lands instead of actively negotiating peace.”

CONGRESS DIVIDED ON BIDEN DECISION TO PROVIDE CLUSTER MUNITIONS TO UKRAINE

THE CLUSTER RULES: On Friday, the Pentagon spelled out a list of restrictions that Ukraine has agreed to in writing, as a condition of receiving hundreds of thousands of artillery shells that will prevent Ukraine’s counteroffensive from running out of critical ammunition.

The 155 mm artillery rounds known as including dual-purpose improved conventional munitions, or “DPICMs,” each dispense 72 submunitions or “bomblets,” of which a small number fail to explode, posing a threat to both civilians and combatants on the battlefield.

“With this announcement, we will be able to provide Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of additional artillery ammunition immediately. This decision will ensure we can sustain our support for Ukraine by bridging us to a point where we are producing sufficient artillery ammunition on a monthly basis across the coalition,” said Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, at a Pentagon briefing.

“The Ukrainian government has offered us assurances in writing on the responsible use of DPICMs, including that they will not use the rounds in civilian-populated urban environments and that they will record where they use these rounds, which will simplify later demining efforts. Ukraine also has committed to post-conflict demining efforts to mitigate any potential harm to civilians.”

“This is about keeping Ukraine in the fight,” said NSC spokesman John Kirby on ABC. They are using artillery at a very accelerated rate, many thousands of rounds per day. This is literally a gunfight all along, from the Donbas, all the way down towards Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.”

“We are trying to ramp up our production of the kind of artillery shells that they’re using most. But that production is still not where we wanted it to be. So, we’re going to see these additional artillery shells that have cluster bomblets in them to help bridge the gap as we ramp up production of normal 155 artillery shells.”

NATO COUNTRIES DISAGREE WITH BIDEN DECISION TO PROVIDE UKRAINE WITH CONTROVERSIAL CLUSTER MUNITIONS

THE MARINES HAVE NO COMMANDANT: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is performing what is usually a routine ceremonial function, presiding over a ceremony as a new Marine Corps commandant assumes leadership of the service.

But while Austin will deliver remarks at today’s 10 a.m. “change of responsibility” ceremony, President Biden’s nominee Gen. Eric Smith, the assistant commandant, will be forced to serve in an acting capacity, because Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) has refused to lift his hold on promotions and confirmations for senior officers.

Tuberville has been waging a one-man battle against a Pentagon policy that grants paid time off and reimburses travel expenses for servicemembers to obtain legal abortions if they are based somewhere where abortions are restricted or banned.

Tuberville says the policy is illegal, violating the Hyde Amendment, which prohibits the use of federal funds to perform abortion. The Pentagon, relying on a 2022 opinion from the Justice Department, says reimbursing travel is not the same as performing or providing abortions.

NOW WE KNOW: Turns out those MQ-9 Reaper drones that Russian warplanes interfered with in the skies over Syria last week were on a hunt for an ISIS leader.

The U.S. Central Command says the unmanned aircraft carried out their mission Friday by killing Usamah al Muhajir, identified as an ISIS leader in eastern Syria.

“The strike on Friday was conducted by the same MQ-9s that had, earlier in the day, been harassed by Russian aircraft in an encounter that had lasted almost two hours,” CENTCOM said in a press release.

“We have made it clear that we remain committed to the defeat of ISIS throughout the region,” said Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command, in the release. “ISIS remains a threat, not only to the region but well beyond.”

ISIS LEADER KILLED IN AIRSTRIKE BY US DRONES THAT WERE HARASSED BY RUSSIAN FIGHTER JETS

MEANWHILE IN SOMALIA: U.S. Africa Command says the U.S. conducted three “collective self-defense airstrikes” in a remote area of Somalia yesterday in support of Somali National Army forces who were engaged by al Shabab fighters.

“Working with the Somali National Army, U.S. Africa Command’s initial assessment is that the U.S. airstrike killed 10 al-Shabaab terrorists and that no civilians were injured or killed,” the U.S. Africa Command said in a press release. “Protecting civilians remains a vital part of the command’s operations to promote a more secure and stable Africa.”

“Somalia remains key to the security environment in East Africa,” the release said. “U.S. Africa Command’s forces will continue training, advising, and equipping partner forces to give them the tools that they need to degrade al-Shabab.”

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Calendar

MONDAY | JULY 10 

6:55 a.m. Vilnius, Lithuania — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda joint press conference ahead of the Vilnius leaders’ summit. Livestream: https://www.nato.int

12 p.m. 601 13th St. NW — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person event: “Building the Navy for the Indo-Pacific,” with Emma Salisbury, associate fellow at the Council on Geostrategy. RSVP: [email protected]

1 p.m. — Air and Space Forces Association discussion: “Breaking Down the Advanced Battle Management System,” with Air Force Brig. Gen. Luke Cropsey, program executive officer for command, control, communications and battle management https://afa-org.zoom.us/webinar/register

3 p.m. — Washington Post live virtual book discussion: By Any Means Available: Memoirs of a Life in Intelligence, Special Operations, and Strategy, including America’s role in the world and the war in Ukraine with author Michael Vickers, former defense undersecretary for intelligence https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

TUESDAY | JULY 11

4 a.m. Vilnius, Lithuania — President Joe Biden attends the two-day NATO leaders’ summit July 11-12 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news

8 a.m. 2941 Fairview Park Dr., Falls Church, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club “Delivering Joint Capabilities Forum,” with Donald Schlomer, acquisition program manager at U.S. Special Operations Command; and David Tremper, executive director of acquisition integration and interoperability at the Office of the Secretary of Defense https://potomacofficersclub.com/govcon-events/

9 a.m. Vilnius, Lithuania — Atlantic Council virtual NATO public forum panel discussion: “Defending Forward: Adapting NATO’s Deterrence and Defense for the Looming Threats” https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/2023-nato-public-forum

9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to consider the nomination of Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. to be chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

9:30 a.m. 601 13th St. NW — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book event: Z Generation: Into the Heart of Russia’s Fascist Youth, with author Ian Garner and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs. RSVP: [email protected]

10:15 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace hybrid in-person and virtual event: “The Growing Importance of NATO’s Indo-Pacific Partners,” with Kevin Rudd, Australian ambassador to the U.S.; Tamaki Tsukada, deputy chief of mission, Japanese Embassy; Bede Corry, New Zealand ambassador to the U.S.; Choon-goo Kim, deputy chief of mission, South Korean Embassy; and Karl Eikenberry, Senior Military Advisory Group, U.S. Institute of Peace https://www.usip.org/events/growing-importance-natos-indo-pacific-partners

10:30 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation 2024 B.C. Lee Lecture: “The Future of the U.S.-South Korea Alliance in the Indo-Pacific,” with Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN); Rep. Young Kim (R-CA); and Korean Ambassador to the U.S. Hyundong Cho https://www.heritage.org/asia/event/the-2023-bc-lee-lecture

11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual discussion: of new report: Beyond Precision: Maintaining America’s Strike Advantage in Great Power Conflict, with author Tyler Hacker, CSBA research fellow, and CSBA President and CEO Thomas Mahnken https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register

1 p,m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “Does U.S. Policy Toward the Taliban Need Rethinking?” with Lisa Curtis, director of the Center for a New American Security’s Indo-Pacific Security Program; former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Ronald Neumann, president of the American Academy of Diplomacy; former Afghanistan Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates Javid Ahmad, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; Marvin Weinbaum, director of Afghanistan and Pakistan studies at MEI; and Douglas London, MEI nonresident scholar https://www.mei.edu/events/does-us-policy-toward-taliban-need-rethinking

WEDNESDAY | JULY 12

9 a.m. Vilnius, Lithuania — Atlantic Council virtual NATO public forum, panel discussions: “Harnessing Emerging Technologies for Strategic Advantage”; “Beyond the Blueprint: NATO’s Strategic Concept in Practice”; and “Bridging the Atlantic: Priorities for NATO’s Future from Vilnius to Washington D.C.” https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/2023-nato-public-forum/

9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to consider the nomination of Army Gen. Randy George to be chief of staff of the Army https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

10 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: “Afghanistan’s Dire Humanitarian Situation: How Can the International Community Alleviate the Crisis and Protect Afghan Livelihoods?” with Samira Sayed-Rahman, director of policy, advocacy and communications at the International Rescue Committee; Melissa Cornet, humanitarian advocacy adviser at CARE Afghanistan; and William Byrd, USIP senior expert for Afghanistan https://www.usip.org/events/afghanistans-dire-humanitarian-situation

11 a.m. 1819 L St. NW — East-West Center in Washington discussion: “New War in the South China Sea: Framing China’s Unrestricted Warfare and the Role of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy,” with Rhisan Mae Morales, assistant professor at Ateneo de Davao University; Rommel Banlaoi, president of the Philippine Society for Intelligence and Security Studies; and Satu Limaye, vice president of the East-West Center https://www.eventbrite.com/e/new-war-in-the-south-china-sea

11 a.m. — Hudson Institute China Center presentation: “China Prepares for War: A Timeline,” with Kyle Bass, founder and chief investment officer, Hayman Capital Management, and member, China Center Advisory Board; Miles Yu, senior fellow and director, China Center; and Paula Dobriansky, senior fellow, Future of Diplomacy Project, Harvard University, and member, China Center Advisory Board https://www.eventbrite.com/e/china-prepares-for-war-a-timeline

2 p.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Border Security and Enforcement hearing: “Protecting the U.S. Homeland: Fighting the Flow of Fentanyl from the Southwest Border” https://www.youtube.com/channel

2:30 p.m. 216 Hart — Senate Intelligence Committee hearing to consider the nomination of Air Force Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh to lead the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command and Michael Casey to be director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/hearings

3:30 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation in-person and virtual discussion: “Securing the Border and the Homeland,” with House Homeland Security Chairman Rep. Mark Green (R-TN); and Derrick Morgan, executive vice president of the Heritage Foundation https://www.heritage.org/immigration/event/securing-the-border

THURSDAY | JULY 13

12 p.m. 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Md. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and the Intelligence and National Security Alliance Intelligence and National Security Summit, with Deputy FBI Director Paul Abbate; George Barnes, deputy director of the National Security Agency; Deputy CIA Director David Cohen; John Kirchhofer, chief of staff of the Defense Intelligence Agency; Troy Meink, principal deputy director of the National Reconnaissance Office; Tonya Wilkerson, deputy director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency; Senate Intelligence Chairman Mark Warner (D-VA); Senate Intelligence Vice Chairman Marco Rubio (R-FL); Scott Bray, deputy director of naval intelligence and director of Naval Intelligence Activity; Lt. Gen. Leah Lauderback, deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and cyber effects operations at the Air Force Headquarters; and Joseph Rouge, deputy director of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance at the Space Force https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event

7 p.m. 390 Cannon — House select committee on the Chinese Communist Party hearing: “Risky Business: Growing Peril for American Companies in China,” with testimony from Piper Lounsbury, chief research and development officer, Strategy Risks; Shehzad Qazi, chief operating officer and managing director, China Beige Book International; and Desmond Shum, author of Red Roulette: An Insider’s story of Wealth, Power, Corruption and Vengeance in Today’s China https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/committee-activity/live

FRIDAY | JULY 21

9 a.m. 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Md. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and the Intelligence and National Security Alliance Intelligence and National Security Summit, with Julian Gewirtz, deputy coordinator for China global affairs at the State Department; Rear Adm. Thomas Henderschedt, intelligence director, J2, at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; Lt. Gen. Robert “Bob” Ashley Jr., CEO of Ashley Global Leadership and Security and former deputy chief of staff for intelligence, G2, at the Army; Aastha Verma, chief of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s Cybersecurity Division; Rachel Grunspan, AI lead for the intelligence community in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; Lakshmi Raman, CIA director of artificial intelligence innovation; and Jason Wang, technical director of the National Security Agency’s Computer and Analytic Sciences Research Group; and Jon Finer, deputy national security adviser https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies in-person and virtual event: “Acquisition for Decision Advantage: The Role of the CDAO in Scaling Software Solutions,” with Margie Palmieri, deputy chief digital and artificial intelligence officer, Department of Defense; and Cynthia Cook, director, Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group, and senior fellow, International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/acquisition-decision-advantage