In recent years, interest in religion and politics has spread like converts at a revival. Electoral analysts have long dissected the voting patterns of various belief groups, such as Protestants, Catholics and Jews. And at the end of the 20th century, the growing mobilization of the Christian right, represented by groups like the Moral Majority, also captured a lot of media and popular attention. But after the strong showing by President Bush among religious conservatives in 2000 and 2004, and the focus on so-called “values voters,” attention to how each party tried to attract the pious peaked again. In 2006, Democrats embarked on a crusade to evangelize religiously-oriented Americans. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid now regularly include scripture verses in their justifications for more spending and higher taxes. For their part, Republicans are trying to cling to these voters and keep them inside the party tent. With this background in mind, it’s interesting that the most religious voters in 2008 don’t find a great deal of redemption in either party’s frontrunner. Frank Newport of the Gallup organization recently offered some analysis that underscores this point. In a recent post on his blog, Newport demonstrates that the most religious Democrats (those who attend church weekly) support Senator Clinton over Senator Obama 46 percent to 43 percent. Yet as Newport points out, these numbers are confounded because blacks support Obama by such overwhelming margins and attend church more regularly than white Democrats. Among the white, highly religious Democrats, Clinton leads by a lopsided 57 percent to 29 percent. A similar pattern exists on the Republican side. In last week’s Wisconsin primary, while Senator McCain won handily among most voter groups, according to the CNN exit polling, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee prevailed among those who attend church more than once a week by a whopping 67 percent to 27 percent. A similar pattern emerged in the Maryland and Virginia contests the week before. Newport notes that Senator McCain leads nationally among those who attend church weekly, but by a much narrower margin than among less religiously-oriented Republicans. According to Newport, “In tracking over the weekend, to be sure, McCain wins over Huckabee among this group of highly religious Republicans, but by only about 10 points. McCain’s lead zooms to 40 and 50 points among Republicans who attend church less frequently.” Religious voters will play a key role in deciding the next occupant of the White House, but for now it appears both party frontrunners need to do a better job proselytizing regular church goers to win these voters’ affections.
