IOWA CITY, Iowa — The fight between Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren stands to turn off Iowa Democrats long averse to negativity in politics, offering a fresh chance for rival 2020 Democrats to nab some of their support.
The Sanders campaign, in particular, is concerned the spat over a more than year-old conversation about the viability of a female presidential candidate could dampen support on both sides.
At this point, former Vice President Joe Biden and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg figure to be the biggest beneficiaries. Buttigieg, who had been feuding with Warren for weeks over his past work at the consulting firm McKinsey & Co. and his ritzy campaign fundraisers, has announced an aggressive campaign schedule through the central and western part of the state.
Meanwhile, Biden’s team believes the potential collapse of a unified progressive front against its candidate is exactly what it predicted and the key to an ultimate primary victory. Those close to Biden have told the Washington Examiner that they never viewed Buttigieg as a threat but maintained concerns about placing below Warren or Sanders in Iowa.
“I think Joe is doing very well. Warren and Sanders bickering the way they are explains why neither one of them should go against Donald Trump in November. He’s got a shot of winning Iowa now,” said Dick Harpootlian, a South Carolina Democratic former party chair and Biden campaign confidante. “Warren and Sanders are obviously bickering like two kids in the back seat of a car while the parents are up front. Iowans don’t like the negativitity. It’s a sign of immaturity and inability to control your emotions when you’re going against the most annoying person in the country.”
Because the race in Iowa remains so close, any potential shift in voters could make a dramatic change at the end. A RealClearPolitics average of recent polls shows a virtual tie between Sanders and Biden at 20.7% and 20.3% support, respectively. In third is Buttigieg at 18.7% and Warren at 16%.
Democratic strategists in Iowa have maintained that the race remains wide open, citing a record-number of undecided voters. Given Iowans’ historical distaste of negative campaigning, voters on the fence could wind up backing more moderately center-left and measured candidates such as Buttigieg or Biden.
“People are really conflicted, and now we’re really down to four. Twenty percent of Iowans started at almost certainly supporting Joe Biden. So the rest of us want an alternative, but many are unsure if those alternatives can win a general election, so do I just go with Joe Biden. Or do I look at the alternatives?” said Iowa political strategist Andrew Turner.
“I think this fighting benefits Buttigieg,” Turner said. “The difference between all four of them is about two percentage points right now. And there will be some people from Warren’s camp who say, ‘Oh, this fighting is a lot, I’m going with someone else.’ I think there’s a smaller percentage of people on Bernie’s team saying, ‘Maybe I’ll give that Pete guy a listen.'”
