Death and taxes are supposed to be the only sure things in life.
But at this year?s Academy Awards, the winners in the acting categories are pretty much a lock as well. Potentially one of the least-suspenseful Oscar contests in recent memory, the 79th annual presentation of that Little Naked Golden Dude may end up being more fun for Helen Mirren, Jennifer Hudson and Company than for us watching in our pajamas and cubic zirconia tiaras (like me!). But there are two things that could save the evening.
First, if you can manage to keep your eyes open through the whole three-to-four hour extravaganza, the last category of the night has shaped up as a pundit-perplexing free-for-all with three very different films neck-and-neck. And secondly, on past shows, there?s usually been one gasp-inducing upset win.
See my predictions and preferences below for a guess on where that surprise is most likely to occur. But just in case the shake-up never materializes, you might want to prepare plenty of caffeinated beverages to wash down your popcorn and keep you up until the end.
BEST PICTURE
Nominess: “Babel,” “The Departed,” “Letters From Iwo Jima,” “Little Miss Sunshine,” “The Queen.”
» Who will win: “Little Miss Sunshine.” This one?s a real contest between the serious-minded but distressing issue drama “Babel,” the wildly engaging though socially inconsequential crime saga “The Departed,” and the quirky feel-good comedy “Sunshine.” The latter family story seems to have the fewest opponents and has the late-breaking momentum with its victory two weeks ago for best ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. But who knows?
» Who should win: “The Departed.” Both for its artistic/technical mastery and for sheer entertainment value, this tangled undercover story of cops and robbers is simply the best film of the year.
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominess: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “Babel”; Martin Scorsese, “The Departed”; Clint Eastwood, “Letters From Iwo Jima”; Stephen Frears, “The Queen”; Paul Greengrass, “United 93.”
» Who will win: Martin Scorsese. Here?s the consensus: Marty?s been nominated five times for his brilliant masterpieces over the years and has never won. So, even though the proficient “Departed” may not break ground like his “Taxi Driver” or “Goodfellas,” the great maestro deserves a win ? finally ? if at least for overall career achievement.
» Who should win: Martin Scorsese. It?s probably not fair to take into account a director?s entire body of work when comparing current films for an Oscar. But even if “Departed” isn?t his best work ? and it isn?t ?it still made for the most fulfilling night at the movies for me in 2006. Paul Greengrass? intense “United 93” was a close second.
BEST ACTRESS
Nominess: Penelope Cruz, “Volver”; Judi Dench, “Notes on a Scandal”; Helen Mirren, “The Queen”; Meryl Streep, “The Devil Wears Prada”; Kate Winslet, “Little Children.”
» Who will win: Helen Mirren. Bet the farm.
» Who should win: Kate Winslet. This is the toughest category for choosing a favorite. I?d be just as happy if any of these great dames walked to the podium. But youngest-ever, five-time Oscar nominee Winslet gave the most nuanced and brave performance in the vulnerable role of a very flawed desperate housewife. Plus, amazingly, she?s never won one.
BEST ACTOR
Nominess: Leonardo DiCaprio, “Blood Diamond”; Ryan Gosling, “Half Nelson”; Peter O?Toole, “Venus”; Will Smith, “The Pursuit of Happyness”; Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland.”
» Who will win: Forest Whitaker. He?s earned almost all of the precursor awards, from the Golden Globes on down. And he?s playing the kind of flamboyant, larger-than-life character that Academy voters tend to love.
» Who should win: Forest Whitaker. Given the other choices, his was the most memorable work and it saveda film that would have dragged without him. But I?d also love for Peter O?Toole to get the trophy. The seven-time nominee, immortal as the title icons in “Lawrence of Arabia” and “The Lion in Winter,” has only ever earned an honorary Oscar. And his “Venus” was a very witty study in geriatric love.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominess: Adriana Barraza, “Babel”; Cate Blanchett, “Notes on a Scandal”; Abigail Breslin, “Little Miss Sunshine”; Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”; Rinko Kikuchi, “Babel.”
» Who will win: Jennifer Hudson. No doubt. “Dreamgirls” got the most nominations this year, with eight, though not a best picture nod. And Hudson?s performance has been its one gleaming calling card at every critics group and guild prize ritual.
» Who should win: Jennifer Hudson. The most showstopping moment in any film last year was her boffo delivery of the heartbreaking number “And I Am Telling You I?m Not Going.” It?s a landmark in the history of movie musicals for its vocal and emotional force.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominess: Alan Arkin, “Little Miss Sunshine”; Jackie Earle Haley, “Little Children”; Djimon Hounsou, “Blood Diamond”; Eddie Murphy, “Dreamgirls”; Mark Wahlberg, “The Departed.”
» Who will win: Eddie Murphy. Here?s the best chance we have for an upset Sunday night. Murphy has been successful if slightly arrogant and underwhelmed during the last three months on the awards circuit. Academy voters prefer gushing sentiment and humility from its potential victors. So the beloved veteran Arkin could pull it out, especially in light of the eleventh-hour drive behind “Sunshine.”
» Who should win: Mark Wahlberg. Who knew that the former Calvin Klein underwear model had acting chops like this!? 2006 was his year, first giving an unsung tour de force as the late-in-life pro football player in “Invincible” and then as a deliciously hardboiled detective opposite Jack Nicholson and the boys in a Scorsese picture.
And why not pick Eddie Murphy? One word: “Norbit.”
THE 79TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS
» 8:30 p.m. Sunday, ABC
