Over the past two weeks, I’ve witnessed road rage on three separate occasions. Curiously, the incidents had several things in common. First, each perpetrator was a white woman in the 18-29-year-old demographic, infatuated with the sound of her own horn. Second, they each drove a car that probably got at least 30 miles per gallon and may have been powered by something other than fossil fuel. Third, each sported an Obama ’08 bumper sticker. And finally, each used the longest digit on her right hand to let me know her candidate was “number one.”
Clearly they take civic duty seriously. But the third woman said it all. Her Prius wore a second bumper sticker–“If You’re Not Outraged, You’re Not Paying Attention.” Obviously these three drivers were paying very close attention. However, when it comes to public policy, a lot of people don’t, which creates a major challenge for candidates and political parties. It also explains a lot about the tactics of modern liberal interest groups.
Survey research as far back as the 1950s supports this point. In their classic work, The American Voter, Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes find the proportion of the electorate that understands politics in clear, left-right ideological terms or grasps where the two parties stand on issues is relatively small. After conducting several major studies, including large surveys analyzing the 1952 and 1956 presidential elections, Campbell and his colleagues conclude, “In general, public officials and people involved in public relations tend to overestimate the impact that contemporary issues have on the public. They find it difficult to believe that the reams of newspaper copy and the hours of television and radio time could be ignored by any normal person within the reach of these media.”
Writing over a half century later in The American Voter Revisited, Michael S. Lewis Beck and three colleagues find not much has changed: “the average voter has at best partial acquaintance with the salient issues of the day.”
This description does not fit everyone. Some Americans–typically those with strong allegiances to one party or the other–pay close attention to political news and events. But a significant portion does not. When they do listen, it’s because a political message is shouted loudly, repeatedly and has seeped into the popular culture.
Barack Obama’s allies intend to make a lot of noise in the next few weeks, banging gongs of support for the president’s budget and legislative agenda. Some might scoff at the tactic, thinking it’s just a bunch of liberal activists preaching to the converted. That’s true in part. But there’s a broader aspect of the strategy. It’s both smart and effective. And it could tip the balance of support toward Obama by convincing enough of those who don’t normally pay attention that the president’s doing the right thing.
Over the past several months, new organizations have been gearing up for this noise-making effort. One is “Organizing for America” (OFA), the successor to the Obama campaign. It boasts over 13 million email addresses and is overseen by the Democratic National Committee. Former Obama campaign senior staffers, including campaign manager David Plouffe, advise OFA. The organization announced this week it would deploy tactics used during the campaign–house meetings, door-to-door canvassing, and email–to promote the president’s budget plan.
Another entity is Unity ’09, a loosely-knit group of liberal organizations and formed over the last year. According to media reports, MoveOn.org is a central player in its planning and execution. Unity ’09 is also closely linked to Progressive Media. Politico’s Ben Smith summarized the relationship between the two groups this way: “Unity ’09 is, informally, the field organizing compliment to another new organization, Progressive Media, which launched a month ago to coordinate the liberal groups’ message and their attacks on Republicans and critics of Obama’s policies.” The groups are funded in part by labor unions, environmental groups, Planned Parenthood and the American Civil Liberties Union, among others, according to Smith.
It’s unclear if these groups will make a difference promoting the president’s agenda or discrediting Republicans. But they will make some noise. The clamor could help break through the din of other messages competing for Americans’ attention. And if that’s all they do, it’s probably worth the effort. As Red Auerbach used to caution communicators, “It’s not what you say, it’s what they hear.” So start paying attention and watch the next iteration of the Obama campaign. At a minimum, I hope they give my friend in the Prius a new bumper sticker.
Gary Andres is vice chairman of research at Dutko Worldwide in Washington, D.C., and a regular contributor to THE WEEKLY STANDARD Online.
