New polling released on Wednesday shows Donald Trump has taken the lead in Florida and Ohio.
Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 3 percentage points in Florida, 47-44, and by 5 points, 46-41, in Ohio, according to a new CNN/ORC survey of a four-way race in each state. The Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson polled at 6 percentage points in Florida and 8 points in Ohio, while the Green Party’s Jill Stein is at or below 2 points in both states.
Trump’s narrow advantage in Florida falls within the polls’ 3.5-percentage-point margin of error and shows just how competitive the presidential contest has become.
“Both candidates have the support of roughly 9 in 10 of their own partisans in each state, but Clinton trails Trump among independent voters in both places, with Trump up 10 points among independents likely to vote in Florida and 8 points in Ohio,” wrote Jennifer Agiesta, CNN’s polling director. “Younger voters, who were a key driver of President Barack Obama’s support in both 2008 and 2012, are not lining up as solidly behind Clinton in either state, and they are less likely than older voters to make it through a likely voter screen at this point in the campaign, suggesting they are less enthusiastic about voting in this election.”
Incumbent Republican senators in Florida and Ohio enjoy a double-digit percentage point advantage over their Democratic challengers and are outperforming the GOP nominee. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio leads Democratic congressman Patrick Murphy by 11 percentage points, 54-43, among likely voters. And Ohio Sen. Rob Portman is 21 percentage points up, 58-37, among likely voters on former Gov. Ted Strickland.
CNN/ORC surveyed 1,003 adults, including 788 likely voters, in Florida and 1,006 adults, including 769 likely voters, in Ohio. Both polls had a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.
