The Biden administration has been actively trying to airlift Americans out of Afghanistan ahead of a Tuesday deadline. So far, at least 4,500 Americans have been evacuated since Aug. 14, but as many as 1,500 Americans and countless others desperate to escape the Taliban regime are still stuck.
That was before Kabul was rocked on Thursday by two explosions near Hamid Karzai International Airport, where four U.S. Marines were killed, as well as Afghan civilians, with more wounded.
FOUR US MARINES KILLED AFTER BOMBS TEAR THROUGH CROWD AT KABUL AIRPORT
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“The window of opportunity is quickly closing for Afghans to flee the country,” Lori Ries, the director at the Center for Technology Policy at the Heritage Foundation, said. “Hopefully, that window has not closed completely — especially as the Taliban begins its reign of terror. Reports are already circulating of the Taliban going door-to-door to murder people and sending frightening written warnings to individuals, especially women, former Afghan government officials and religious minorities (including Christians), saying that the Taliban knows who they are.”
The fear of a return to Taliban rule, local food shortages, drought, and a collapsing banking system have prompted people to abandon any attempt to make it to the airport and instead make the treacherous journey by land, across thousands of miles of steep mountains, deserts, rivers, and armed checkpoints, to safety.
There had been some hope of Afghans crossing the “Friendship Bridge” at the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan border, but even that seems almost impossible now.
The bridge, which spans the Amu Darya between the two countries, was the dramatic backdrop for a chaotic retreat last week by pro-government fighters running to the crossing to seek safety on the opposite side of the river. In addition to government security forces, the militias of two warlords, Marshal Abdul Rashid Dostum and Atta Muhammad Noor, also rushed across the bridge seeking safety. The bridge quickly turned into a stalled traffic jam of cars and pickup trucks filled with soldiers. The Uzbek authorities allowed one group of 84 in but arrested them a short time later for illegal border crossing.
On Tuesday, Uzbekistan’s foreign ministry warned that any attempts to violate the border would be “harshly suppressed,” adding that Uzbek authorities maintained “close contacts” with the Taliban on border issues.
Just how many Afghan refugees made it to Uzbekistan as the Taliban members began making their way through Afghanistan in recent months remains unclear. Afghan citizens who applied for Uzbek visas told the Associated Press that the country has been refusing to issue them, citing coronavirus concerns.
With Uzbekistan out of the picture, one of the more dangerous routes to safety takes Afghans through Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, and the Balkans before finding freedom elsewhere in Europe.
The terrain is a huge concern, but if one can survive that, the bigger problem is that Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, and Greece have made it clear that refugees are not welcome.
Pakistan, which borders Afghanistan, has almost completed a wall to keep people out. Turkey has erected a 93-mile wall along its border with Iran, and Greece has also just built a border wall.
“Our country will not be a gateway to Europe for illegal Afghan migrants,” Greek migration minister Notis Mitarachi recently said.
Turning away refugees has widened a dangerous black market, with desperate Afghans ready to hand over large sums of money or whatever else of value they have to smugglers to get out.
The illegal land route, frequently used by drug smugglers, is called the “Golden Crescent.”
Afghans are likely to be taken through the deserts of Nimruz province and over the border into the Balochistan region of Pakistan. Balochistan is the largest of the four provinces in Pakistan (spread over 134,000 square miles) and is the least populated province.
From there, the refugees head south and cross over into Iran, where they have to traverse mountainous terrain and go on a 1,400-mile trek across the country before being dropped off near the Van border region of Turkey. But Turkey, long seen as the gateway to Europe, has been on high alert and has conducted a massive crackdown on refugees from Afghanistan.
Another route would be for Afghans to cross directly to Iran from the provinces of Nimruz and Herat, though this is much more dangerous. The Taliban swept through Nimruz and Herat earlier this month before sweeping into Kabul. Even if a migrant successfully navigates through Taliban reach, that person must deal with Iran. In May, Iranian border guards were accused of drowning 50 Afghan refugees. Iran has been known to aid the Taliban in the past and is seen as a sympathizer of the extremist group.
Wealthy Afghans who make it into Turkey often take boats from resort towns to the eastern coast of Italy, but the price of one ticket on such a vessel often exceeds $9,500, the Guardian reported.
With Greece cracking down on refugees, one of the last options for Afghans is to take the Balkan route toward Europe’s interior.
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It’s a grueling, lengthy, and unpredictable journey that takes them through Bulgaria, Serbia, Bosnia, Croatia, and Slovenia before reaching other parts of Europe.
“Afghans are currently the second-most prevalent nationality on the Balkan route,” said Laura Lungarotti, the U.N. migration agency’s chief of mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina and coordinator in the western Balkans.
Lungarotti told the Guardian she expects a surge in refugees.
“After what is happening in Kabul, we expect their numbers to grow in the coming weeks and months,” she said.
