The results of the latest straw poll of WEEKLY STANDARD readers are in. It’s not a scientific poll, of course—but since the respondents are very perceptive WEEKLY STANDARD readers, I’m going to claim (why not?) that the results are a suggestive leading indicator of where the GOP race may be going.
We asked for first, second, and third place choices. Here are the first place results:
Marco Rubio 21%
Donald Trump 15%
Ted Cruz 15%
Carly Fiorina 12%
Ben Carson 11%
Scott Walker 9%
John Kasich 7%
Jeb Bush 4%
No one else had more than 1.5 percent of the first place votes.
Now here are the percentage of the ballots on which the candidate is mentioned for first, second, or third place:
Carly Fiorina 52%
Marco Rubio 46%
Ben Carson 44%
Ted Cruz 40%
Scott Walker 29%
Donald Trump 25%
John Kasich 20%
Jeb Bush 14%
All others in mid-to-low single digits.
What to conclude?
1. An Elite Eight seems to have emerged. Someone else could come from far behind or enter the race late—but at this point it would seem likely one of these eight contenders listed above will be the nominee.
2. Scott Walker, who’s led past TWS straw polls, has had a very bad few weeks. Can he recover?
3. John Kasich has a shot to join or replace Jeb Bush as the establishment candidate unafraid to make the case for nominating someone with governing experience.
4. Ben Carson has had a well-publicized and impressive move up. But Carly Fiorina has also rocketed up in our straw polls, and Ted Cruz has been gaining pretty consistently as well.
5. If you tend to think, as I do, that ultimately neither Trump nor Carson will be nominated, and if you assume no comeback for Walker or Bush, you get a Final Four of Rubio, Fiorina, Cruz, and Kasich. Which seems plausible.
