The Indian government issued a diplomatic protest to Pakistan yesterday, requesting that Pakistan turn over about 20 senior terrorists in response to last week’s attacks in Mumbai. At the top the list are Laskhar-e-Taiba leader Hafiz Saeed, Jaish-e-Mohammed leader Maulana Masood Azhar, and mafia and terror kingpin Dawood Ibrahim. As noted yesterday, getting the Pakistanis to turn over Saeed and other members of the well-established terror infrastructure inside the country will be nearly impossible. The Laskhar-e-Taiba is a state within a state; it has its hooks set deeply in elements of the Pakistani military and the Inter-Service Intelligence Agency. Like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Laskhar-e-Taiba is more than a militia. It offers services such as education and healthcare not provided by the state. The Pakistanis, knowing that turning over Saeed and others to the hated Indians would lead to unbearable internal political strife, now fear the Indians may conduct cross-border strikes into Pakistan. According to Pakistani intelligence, Lashkar-e-Taiba’s sprawling Muridke complex is at the top of the list:
The U.S. government is going to have a hard time convincing the Indians not to act, particularly with the ongoing covert U.S. air campaign in Pakistan’s tribal areas. The Indian government will be under internal political pressure to respond to the Mumbai attacks, particularly if Pakistan fails to turn over Saeed, Azhar, Dawood, and the others. The real challenge in the short term will be how to keep Pakistan and India from coming to blows, sparking a war between two nuclear powers.
