Donald Trump tightened his grip on the Republican presidential nomination by dominating Super Tuesday. But his prospects of defeating Hillary Clinton in the general election are fraught with new trouble.
By winning 7 states yesterday, he denied Ted Cruz a string of victories in Southern states that were to be his launching pad to the nomination. Instead, Cruz won only his home state of Texas and neighboring Oklahoma. Trump captured Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Virginia – the mythical Cruz base.
And Trump’s rivals gave him an important gift. Rather than unite behind a single candidate to challenge Trump, all four rivals said they were remaining in the race. Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and Ben Carson ignored Cruz’s suggestion they unite behind him. This means Trump will have an easier time winning the Florida and Ohio primaries on March 15 and locking up the nomination.
But beating Hillary Clinton – or Bernie Sanders, in the unlikely event he wins the Democratic nomination – now looks more difficult than ever for Trump. It’s not because Clinton spread the word that she is prepared to run a super-aggressive, expensive campaign against Trump with her husband, ex-President Bill Clinton leading the charge. She would do that if Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz happened to be the GOP nominee.
Trump’s problem is defections – that is, Republicans declaring they will not vote for him, period. The revolt against Trump is just beginning. Both national polls and exit polls in Super Tuesday states indicate it is likely to continue to grow.
“I am a unifier,” Trump said after his Super Tuesday triumph. “I know people will find that hard to believe [but] when we unify, there is nobody that is going to beat us.”
Trump’s bravado is belied by national opinion polls and exit polls in Super Tuesday states. They indicate Trump is the least likely of the Republican candidates to unite the party.
In a CNN poll last week, 35 percent of Republican voters said they would definitely not support Trump and another 13 percent said they probably wouldn’t. No other candidate, Republican or Democrat, has negative numbers like this.
In exit polls, voters were asked if they would be “satisfied” if Trump wins the nomination. In Virginia, where Trump won the primary, 53 percent of GOP voters said no. President Obama won Virginia in 2008 and 2012. In 2016, Virginia is a must-win state for the Republican nominee.
He also did poorly in Arkansas, another state he won yesterday. Fifty-one percent of Republicans said they would not be satisfied with Trump as nominee. He did better in Alabama (41 percent dissatisfied) and Tennessee (41), both states he won easily.
Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina senator who dropped out of the Republican race in December, said in an interview he expected 25 percent of Republican voters to reject Trump in the general election. Against Trump, Clinton would get 90 percent of the African-American votes and 80 percent of Hispanics. If Graham’s projections come even close, Trump would lose to Clinton by a substantial margin.
That Trump runs poorly among blacks and Hispanics is disputed only by Trump himself. He said he has “expanded” the party. If so, it hasn’t been by attracting minorities, at least according to polls.
Graham is no Trump fan. He blames Trump for worsening the split in the Republican party, notably on immigration. “Donald Trump has taken gasoline and poured it over the fire of immigration,” he told me. “This single issue has destroyed the Republican party.”
If Trump is the nominee, GOP voters will have to choose among four possibilities: vote for Trump, vote for Clinton, vote for an independent candidate (presumably a conservative), or don’t vote.
Senator Ben Sasse, the Nebraska Republican, has begun campaigning against Trump, though not for a specific Republican candidate. He says he won’t vote for Clinton. And an increasing number of prominent Republicans have also said they won’t support Trump.
Along with Cruz, Trump has exploited the split among Republicans. He sided with grassroots conservatives and those who have felt “betrayed” by their national politicians. Now that is coming back to haunt him. To win in November, he will need the other side, the mainstream and establishment Republicans. But he has alienated them.
The Washington Examiner‘s Byron York suggested on Fox News that if Trump continues to win primaries, alienated Republicans will begin to come around, since they normally follow what GOP voters favor. For Trump to win the presidency, they will have to.
