Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary, but his coalition in New Hampshire does not appear much larger than what Pat Buchanan garnered in 1992 or 1996. He is pulling in the same basic coalition, which had a ceiling of about 30 percent nationwide.
John Kasich’s second place finish is much more interesting to me.
Kasich hit the upside surprise in New Hampshire tonight. The polls had him finishing in third, but as of this writing he is solidly in second place with 16 percent of the vote. Does he have a path moving forward, or is this just a fluke?
Kasich has been counted out for most of this cycle; his bid is a longshot one at best; and there is no doubt he has a steep hill to climb. Money is a huge problem for him. So also is the immediate calendar. The primary battle now swings to South Carolina, and Nevada, and then Super Tuesday hits the South. This will be tough for Kasich to survive. But it may be doable. Also, Massachusetts and Minnesota have primaries on Super Tuesday, while Alaska, North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wyoming have caucuses. Kasich—who combines pragmatism with a Midwesterner’s sunny disposition—could win some of these, and hang on to fight until the next phase.
Which is where he could make a move. Why can’t Kasich play in Michigan, whose primary is March 8? Or Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio, on March 15? And on March 15 states are allowed to allocate by winner-take-all. That’s when the goofy New Hampshire moderate becomes your nextdoor neighbor, a practical conservative with the Yinzer accent. Isn’t that a good fit for those Midwestern states with their huge delegate hauls?
It’s a highly unlikely angle. He will probably struggle to raise the funds he’ll need. But if he holds on somehow, while Rubio and Bush pummel each other to pieces, and the party is staring at either Trump or Cruz, the money might swing to Kasich.
Isn’t the Kasich case at least as persuasive the Bush case? Bush has spent tens of millions of dollars, only to finish less than one point better than Kasich in Iowa, and four or five points worse than Kasich in New Hampshire. The only thing Bush has going for him is money—but money runs out.
The Bush team is surely satisfied to have defeated Rubio tonight, but the obsession with the junior senator from Florida masks a glaring weakness so far exhibited across the two states, and indeed the national polls: Republican voters so far do not seem willing to give him a serious look. If Rubio fails to right the ship, and Bush continues to struggle, why can’t the money go to Kasich eventually? And if the money goes to him, why can’t the votes?
Again, unlikely. But when Kasich threw into this race, nobody thought he’d finish ahead of the serious Republican contenders in New Hampshire. So, why not?
Jay Cost is a staff writer at The Weekly Standard and the author of A Republic No More: Big Government and the Rise of American Political Corruption.
