Arthur Herman writes in the New York Post:
The main point of last week’s presidential report on America’s progress in Afghanistan was no surprise: We’re making “fragile” progress in our nine-year war there, but not enough. Yet it’s what President Obama and his advisers aren’t saying about Afghanistan that’s vital to making up our minds on whether this war is worth it.
First, the brutal Afghan winter leaves us stuck in a dynamic where every fall our generals and strategists make an adjustment, then must wait for spring and summer to see if it worked. It’s a chess game in which the players get one move a year, and it’s been going on since 2002. This makes progress, if any, hard to measure — and frustrates our soldiers and generals, who must wait four months after every operation against the Taliban to see if it pays off.
Second, we’re fighting an enemy, al Qaeda and its allies, who lost in Iraq — and are determined not to repeat the mistake. They’ve studied the Petraeus surge and have been busy taking countermeasures, like applying more terror to keep locals from joining our side. This guarantees that progress is slower than it was in Iraq.
There are also positive developments that no one talks about.
First, the Marines are taking over. In June 2008, 3,700 Marines were in-country. Today, it’s 20,000-plus — and don’t be surprised if that number grows. They’re the secret weapon in Obama’s Afghan surge, proven counterinsurgency warriors who literally wrote the book on such wars (the 1940 “Small Wars Manual”). The places where the Marines go, like Marjah in Helmand, Afghanistan’s most violent province, and Sangin (where they took over from the British in September), are seeing the fastest turnaround.
No surprise: Marines are trained to be the cops on the beat who get to know not only every corner of the neighborhood, but also who are the real bad guys and who’s merely bluffing — and who’s ready to help keep law and order.
First, the brutal Afghan winter leaves us stuck in a dynamic where every fall our generals and strategists make an adjustment, then must wait for spring and summer to see if it worked. It’s a chess game in which the players get one move a year, and it’s been going on since 2002. This makes progress, if any, hard to measure — and frustrates our soldiers and generals, who must wait four months after every operation against the Taliban to see if it pays off.
Second, we’re fighting an enemy, al Qaeda and its allies, who lost in Iraq — and are determined not to repeat the mistake. They’ve studied the Petraeus surge and have been busy taking countermeasures, like applying more terror to keep locals from joining our side. This guarantees that progress is slower than it was in Iraq.
There are also positive developments that no one talks about.
First, the Marines are taking over. In June 2008, 3,700 Marines were in-country. Today, it’s 20,000-plus — and don’t be surprised if that number grows. They’re the secret weapon in Obama’s Afghan surge, proven counterinsurgency warriors who literally wrote the book on such wars (the 1940 “Small Wars Manual”). The places where the Marines go, like Marjah in Helmand, Afghanistan’s most violent province, and Sangin (where they took over from the British in September), are seeing the fastest turnaround.
No surprise: Marines are trained to be the cops on the beat who get to know not only every corner of the neighborhood, but also who are the real bad guys and who’s merely bluffing — and who’s ready to help keep law and order.
Whole thing here.
