New independent voters outnumber new Republicans in Maryland ? but Democratic presidential candidates will have to wait until after next week?s primary to cash in on the trend.
Until then, they can battle for votes from the 161,000 new Democrats on state rolls since the 2004 presidential primary, a 3-1 gain over Republicans, who saw a mere 15 percent increase since then, or 47,000 new voters. Political pundits said those votes could be critical in the so-called Feb. 12 “Chesapeake Primary” and the neck-and-neck race between Democratic Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
“I don?t think it can be statistically decided [today],” said Matthew Crenson, a political science professor at Johns Hopkins University. “I think the Maryland primary with D.C. and Virginia is going to get a lot more attention than any other in the past. It?s getting really close.”
Nearly one-third of Maryland?s 315,850 new voters are not affiliated with any political party and can?t cast ballots in the state?s primary. Many poll watchers expect the Republican nominee to emerge at the end of today, when 24 other states hold primaries and caucauses. Independent voters can cast ballots in 15 of those states and have slightly favored Obama in the Democratic primary thus far, Crenson said.
Democrats could also benefit from more than 15,000 teens who registered to vote since Maryland?s Board of Elections in December agreed to open polls to anyone who will be 18 years old before the general election. Of those, 56 percent registered as Democrats, 26 percent registered as Republicans, and 17 percent registered with other parties or as independents, according to board records.
“Young voters are tending in a strong way to vote Democratic, which bodes well for the future,” said Terry Lierman, former chairman of the Maryland Democratic Party. “Unaffiliates also tend to vote Democratic, especially in that age group. It?s a growing number, and it benefits Democrats.”
GOP officials acknowledge their registration numbers have been on the decline since 2004. Rather than focusing on the quantity of new voters, Republican leaders in Maryland said they have focused energy on registering quality voters they can count on at the polls.
John Flynn, executive director of the Maryland Republican Party, said he also expected Democrats and independents jaded by local politics to convert before November?s general elections.
“We see things turning around for us,” Flynn said. “With [Gov.] Martin O?Malley and the Democrats raising taxes and spending, we think they will be the best recruit we have for new Republicans.”
