In a close election, even small changes in turnout compared to 2004 could tip the balance in several battleground states and determine the next occupant of the White House. The Los Angeles Times featured an insightful piece by Peter Walsten reporting how the Obama campaign and its outside allies plan to set records in securing a historic African-American vote this November. Walsten argues the Obama campaign will use its money and technology to boost turnout among African Americans to unprecedented levels:
Obama strategists believe they have identified a gold mine of new and potentially decisive Democratic voters in at least five battleground states — voters who failed to turn out in the past but can be mobilized this time because Obama’s candidacy is historic and his cash-rich campaign can afford the costly task of identifying and motivating such supporters.
He goes on to explain that boosting African-American turnout in five battleground states in 2000 and 2004 would have meant Democratic wins.
In Florida alone, more than half a million black registered voters stayed home in 2004. Hundreds of thousands more African Americans are eligible to vote but not registered. And campaign analysts have identified similar potential in North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri and Ohio.
The strategy makes sense and is unsurprising given the Illinois senator’s performance among black voters in the primaries. But his campaign’s resources and systematic use of technology to accomplish this goal should make Republican strategists take particular note:
What makes the idea of bringing in so many new voters more than just political fantasy is the Obama campaign’s deep pockets and the sophisticated apparatus it has begun building to achieve its goals — using techniques to ferret out and mobilize potential supporters that only a few years ago were the secret weapons of Republican strategists and their ideological allies. Four years ago, it was President Bush’s campaign that used microtargeting to scope out sympathetic African Americans, helping Bush win 16% of that vote in Ohio, up from 9% in 2000. Republican strategists believe the black vote in Ohio provided Bush the cushion he needed to avoid a 2000-style recount battle there. This time, not only are more African Americans expected to turn out, but Obama aides believe he will win more than 90% of those who do.
