Bob McDonnell’s chances at the Veepstakes

Gov. Bob McDonnell has been touted as a possible vice-presidential candidate in 2012. The Governor has said he would consider an offer to join a ticket. Virginia’s political class is stirred, its press corps intrigued. But according to one of Larry Sabato’s experts, law school Prof. Joel Goldstein, it’s not clear McDonnell, or any of the other “new faces” in the GOP will get picked for the number two slot:

Presidential candidates will drop the names of prospective running mates to flatter them and their supporters. Thus, Newt Gingrich has already hinted that newly elected Rep. Allen West of Florida should be considered to be a heartbeat away from the presidency. Before a candidate selects West, Governors Nikki Haley (SC), Bob McDonnell (VA) or Chris Christie (NJ), or Senators Kelly Ayotte (NH) or Marco Rubio (FL), all of whom have been the happy beneficiaries of running mate speculation, he or she will have to be satisfied that that national neophyte is ready for the scrutiny of those on the national stage.

Flattering a politician’s supporters seems a strange thing to do. These are the same folks who are very likely to support the national nominee anyway. It may be more a matter of signaling, where the potential presidential nominee wants to show the supporters of possible running mates that he (or she) is in tune with the other’s ideas or achievements – and possibly, steal a bit of their mojo.

To Bob McDonnell’s credit, he has been making a national name for himself as a fundraiser and he has friends in high places. Former campaign adviser Ed Gillespie is head of the Republican State Leadership Committee.  McDonnell’s former campaign director Phil Cox is executive director of the Republican Governor’s Association.  Former adviser Fred Malek is head of the American Action Network, a Republican 503 (c) 4 group.  In short, McDonnell is not without well-placed advocates for his cause, should he need them.

He’s also made the national media rounds on matters like health care, jobs, spending and the like. Then again, so has Ken Cuccinelli, and I don’t see him on any lists, except the one naming possible challengers to Sen. Mark Warner in 2014.

But I think a later point Goldstein makes is more interesting, and relevant:

…to the extent history is a guide, a governor is unlikely to be chosen, especially if the nominee is Romney, Huckabee, Palin, Pawlenty, Daniels, Barbour or someone else from a statehouse.

Goldstein notes that in the last 50 years, only two governors have been picked as vice-presidential running mates: Spiro Agnew and Sarah Palin. Make of that combination what you will.

But with history against the idea of vice-presidential candidate McDonnell, at least given the current crop of GOP top slot contenders, it would seem that the Governor is most likely to serve out his term and then turn his eyes to pursuits that don’t involve residing in the Naval Observatory.

Such as being ambassador to Ireland. Or perhaps U.S. trade representative.  Maybe even Commerce Secretary.

Nice titles, every one. And best of all, none of them requires being on the campaign trail, and having the press question your knowledge of geography, obscure national leader’s names or esoteric policy matters.

Related Content