While all eyes are already shifting to 2024 when Democrats and Republicans will once again wrestle over party control of Congress and the White House, there are a number of off-year statewide races in 2023 that may set the stage for bigger national races in the following year.
There are a number of governor’s races slated for 2023 that may have big implications for how the 2024 presidential elections will be administered in some states, such as Kentucky and Louisiana. Meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats are set to battle for majorities in state legislatures in Virginia and New Jersey as they vie for control over state laws.
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Here are five races to watch in 2023:
Kentucky governor’s race
Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) will seek to defend his seat in the governor’s race in the red state, with a growing field of Republican candidates emerging to challenge the incumbent as he vies for a second term.
So far, 12 Republicans have filed to challenge Beshear in the governor’s race, including former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft, state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, state Rep. Savannah Maddox, Somerset Mayor Alan Keck, and state Auditor Mike Harmon.
The Democratic primary field has also started to take shape, with at least two other candidates throwing their hats in the ring to challenge Beshear for the party nomination. Those challengers include former Republican Peppy Martin and former state engineer Geoff Young, who recently lost a House race against Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) in the midterm elections.
Beshear enjoys the backing of both state and national Democrats, although the incumbent is likely to face an uphill battle in the reliably red state if he manages to clinch the party nomination. Republicans hold strong majorities in both chambers of the state legislature, and Beshear won the 2019 election by a slim margin, defeating former Gov. Matt Bevin by only 0.4 percentage points.
However, the Democrat also benefits from high approval ratings in the state, with 59% of voters approving of his job performance, according to a Morning Consult poll conducted in October.
Louisiana governor’s race
The governor’s mansion in Louisiana is up for grabs in 2023 because Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) is unable to run for reelection due to term limits.
As a result, Republicans are eyeing the race as a possible pickup opportunity in the otherwise red state, while Democrats are seeking to hold on to their limited power. The Democratic primary field has been slow to take shape, with only one well-known Democrat publicly considering a bid: Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson.
Meanwhile, the Republican primary field has been at the center of attention as a number of candidates have decided to throw their hats in the ring, including state Attorney General Jeff Landry, Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser, and state Sen. Sharon Hewitt. U.S. Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) is also considering a run for the governor’s mansion, telling voters in early December he was giving the decision “serious consideration.”
If he launches a gubernatorial bid, Kennedy is likely to become an early front-runner, according to internal polling. A survey conducted by Kennedy’s political team showed him leading the GOP field with 21% of voters’ support, followed by Landry with 12.8% and Wilson at 18.2%.
Virginia General Assembly
Both chambers of Virginia’s General Assembly are up for grabs in 2023, just two years after Republicans made huge gains in the state and flipped control of the House of Delegates and the governor’s mansion.
Democrats are seeking to maintain control of their tight majority in the state Senate, where they hold a slim advantage with 21 seats to Republicans’ 18. Meanwhile, Republicans are seeking to defend their 52-47 majority in the House of Delegates that they were able to seize in 2021.
If Republicans manage to hold on to their majority in the state House and take control of the state Senate, the GOP will have total control over both chambers in the state legislature and the governor’s mansion. If Democrats can manage control over both chambers, it will grant the party leverage to contend with Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) and give some opportunities to advance their agenda over the next two years.
Virginia Democrats have expressed some optimism about their electoral chances in 2023, pointing to the party’s gains in other state legislatures during the 2022 midterm elections.
New Jersey Legislature
Similar to Virginia, both chambers in the New Jersey Legislature are up for grabs in 2023 as Democrats seek to defend their majorities in both the state House and Senate.
Democrats control the state Senate with a 24-16 majority as well as the General Assembly with a 46-34 majority. However, Republicans have expressed confidence they could make significant gains, pointing to their electoral strength in 2021.
But GOP candidates are expected to face an uphill battle if 2023 is anything like the midterm elections because Democratic congressional candidates in New Jersey fared well in their respective races. Democrats are likely to benefit from a proposed initiative that is expected to appear on the 2023 ballot that will determine abortion access statewide.
In other states that had similar initiatives on the ballot during the midterm elections, Democrats benefited from increased voter turnout from their base — particularly as Democratic candidates focused much of their campaigns on abortion access.
Wisconsin Supreme Court
Wisconsin is no stranger to hosting tight elections after a handful of contentious midterm races in 2022 — but this time, the competition rests in the state’s Supreme Court.
Elections for state supreme courts are meant to be nonpartisan, but the race in Wisconsin takes on a different tone because it could determine the ideological makeup of the court for the next two years. The seat is being vacated by conservative Justice Patience Roggensack, who is retiring from the state’s highest court in the summer.
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Four candidates have announced their election bids to replace Roggensack so far, including liberal Judges Everett Mitchell of the Dane County Circuit Court and Janet Protasiewicz of the Milwaukee County Circuit Court. Conservative Waukesha County Circuit Judge Jennifer Dorow and former state Supreme Court Justice Daniel Kelly have also announced their intents to run.
Conservatives hold a 4-3 majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, but the court makeup has taken on a new urgency because it is likely to rule on abortion access after the reversal of Roe v. Wade earlier this year. Candidates will face off in a Feb. 21 primary, with the top two advancing to a general election scheduled for April.
