The bailout of the Big 3 automakers is going full speed ahead–if GM can survive until the check comes, that is. Business Week reports that GM barely has enough in cash reserves to keep the doors open until the end of 2008. And President Bush seems less than eager to dispense billions in taxpayer money to prop up a company at death’s door, anyway. Instead, it seems likely that Barack Obama will be forced to bail out the automakers as one of the first acts of his new administration. And while Barack Obama seems committed to giving with one hand, he plans to take away with the other. Transition chief John Podesta confirms that the Obama administration will authorize California to impose its own emission standards on cars sold in the state. California alone constitutes 40 percent of the market for new automobiles in the United States, so imposition of state standards effectively requires the automakers to use those standards for its entire U.S. fleet. Federal law currently mandates a fleet CAFE standard of 31.5 mpg by 2015. The California standard calls for 36 mpg by 2016. That will be difficult enough for Detroit to achieve, particularly considering how little capital is available for new technologies. But what if Sacramento enacts a more stringent standard, or what if several other states elect to do so? It may become impossible for the automakers to meet the rule–at least without massive infusions of new cash. And given the poor health of the companies, they won’t get such financing in the private market anytime in the next few years. So there’s a good chance that once Barack Obama bails out GM, the company will struggle along as a Government Sponsored Entity for years. A taxpayer subsidy will be essential both to retain the jobs and union benefits, and to meet the increasingly stringent emission standards–which Speaker Pelosi and others specifically mention as one condition of Detroit receiving assistance.
