With thin leads in four out of five of the contested battleground states, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s Electoral College math could add up to 306 votes — exactly the number of electoral votes President Trump won by in 2016.
“So now you think he’s the more likely winner in Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, which brings him to 306 electoral votes, exactly what Donald Trump got in 2016?” ABC’s George Stephanopoulos asked FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver.
“That seems like the most likely scenario,” the pollster said in response. “We won’t know about North Carolina for a while, same with Alaska, but we might land right on 306 exactly.”
Latest tabulations of Arizona ballots “are really bad news for Trump,” @NateSilver538 says, with the president underperforming the margin he’s expected to need to retake the lead in the key battleground state. https://t.co/GwwRl4EUb3 pic.twitter.com/445DaAxxsH
— ABC News (@ABC) November 6, 2020
New York Times polling guru Nate Cohn predicted a similar outcome Friday morning, shortly after Georgia’s updated count found Biden ahead by fewer than 2,000 ballots.
“Biden now leads in states worth 306 electoral votes,” Cohn tweeted. “Here’s how the map will probably finish.”
Biden now leads in states worth 306 electoral votes. Here’s how the map will probably finish pic.twitter.com/jsriBmroWb
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 6, 2020
When Trump won in 2016, he and members of his campaign repeatedly referred to the victory as a “landslide.”
“In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally,” Trump tweeted after the election.
In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 27, 2016
Kellyanne Conway, who led Trump to victory four years ago and later became White House counselor, also called the 2016 election results a “blowout” and “historic.”
306. Landslide. Blowout. Historic. https://t.co/ObYZDo8cBq
— Kellyanne Conway (@KellyannePolls) November 28, 2016
Trump won 306 electoral votes in 2016, but two electors in Texas ended up not casting their votes for him, leaving Trump at the end with 304.
So far in 2020, only one election analyst, Decision Desk HQ, has called the election for Biden. The nonpartisan firm made its announcement after Biden pulled ahead in Pennsylvania, projecting that with the other states that have already been called for Biden, Pennsylvania would push the former vice president over the 270-point threshold to 273. Its projection did not make calls for Georgia, Nevada, or Arizona.
Far from conceding a “landslide” loss, the Trump campaign emphasized Friday morning that “this election is not over.”
“The false projection of Joe Biden as the winner is based on results in four states that are far from final,” campaign counsel Matt Morgan said. “Once the election is final, President Trump will be reelected.”
Despite a potential parallel in the margins of victory between 2016 and 2020, this year’s election has been far from the rebuke of Trump and the Republican Party that many Democrats had desired. Though maintaining a majority, Democrats actually lost seats in the House, and the Senate is poised to remain in control of the Republicans, barring two runoff elections in Georgia, according to the Associated Press’s election map.
Democrats also failed to flip a single state legislature, according to the Washington Post, which is of increased significance given that next year, states will redraw their congressional districts and House apportionments based on Census data.
