A wave of internal crises and even wars could follow the coronavirus pandemic “in at least a few — and perhaps many — countries,” according to an intelligence community assessment.
“Some hard-hit developing countries are experiencing financial and humanitarian crises, increasing the risk of surges in migration, collapsed governments, or internal conflict,” the Office of the Director of National Intelligence reported in an annual threat assessment.
That finding sharpens the geopolitical stakes of the coronavirus pandemic.
The social costs of the public health crisis and the economic consequences of recurrent lockdowns in countries around the world have been apparent over the past year, but intelligence officials expect those problems to spill over into the military sphere.
“The economic fallout from the pandemic is likely to create or worsen instability in at least a few — and perhaps many — countries, as people grow more desperate in the face of interlocking pressures that include sustained economic downturns, job losses, and disrupted supply chains,” the report said.
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Federal officials have long worried that the pandemic would cause a surge in migration, particularly from Latin America, that could strain U.S. resources.
“If there is economic collapse in a given country, it is only natural that there will be migration flows to places where the economy is more robust,” John Barsa, then the acting administrator for the U.S. Agency for International Development, told the Washington Examiner in May 2020. “Are we concerned about the economic impacts that this might have, which could lead to migration? Absolutely.”
The same dynamics that could drive a migration surge might also trigger more violent outcomes, according to National Intelligence Director Avril Haines’s team. Those same economic pressures diminish the resources available for security.
“As militaries face growing calls to cut budgets, gaps are emerging in UN peacekeeping operations; military training and preparedness; counterterrorism operations; and arms control monitoring, verification, and compliance,” the report said. “These gaps are likely to grow without a quick end to the pandemic and a rapid recovery, making managing conflict more difficult — particularly because the pandemic has not caused any diminution in the number or intensity of conflicts.”
President Joe Biden’s team prioritized the deployment of vaccines to Americans in the early days of his administration, but U.S. officials are gearing up to distribute shots around the world.
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“We expect COVID-19 to remain a threat to populations worldwide until vaccines and therapeutics are widely distributed,” the report said. “The economic and political implications of the pandemic will ripple through the world for years.”
