Gallup recently released the results of a survey showing a large partisan “confidence gap” in terms of who will win in November. The study finds 61% of Democrats are confident (37% not confident) their candidate will prevail this fall. Among the Republicans, only 39% are confident the GOP will win the White House (58% not confident). Read the report here. Gallup sums up its numbers this way:
No doubt these numbers reflect the ongoing Republican brand problems and the growing angst in the party due to low presidential approval and special election losses. Will this confidence gap hurt John McCain in November? It could. Here are some additional numbers to put the Gallup survey in perspective. Using the American National Election Study from the University of Michigan — which has conducted national surveys since 1952 — I ran some numbers of my own. Every presidential election cycle the survey asks Americans which party they think will win. Here are the results since 1980: Percent of Republicans and Democrats (including leaners) who think their party will win the presidency: Year Republicans Democrats 2004 86% 48% 2000 67% 68% 1996 20% 95% 1992 49% 74% 1988 83% 37% 1984 95% 20% 1980 62% 62% In five of the last seven presidential contests, the more “confident” party won. In two years (2000 and1980) there was no “gap” between the parties. Republicans won both of those elections. It may be time for Republicans to either buck up or take some mood altering pharmaceuticals.
