President Trump is spurning traditional outreach to disaffected swing voters in favor of revving up his loyal base with polarizing rhetoric, an unconventional approach for a trailing incumbent that some Republican operatives believe might pay dividends on Nov. 3.
Trump’s message in the campaign’s closing days is dominated by complaints about the media, claims that the coronavirus is being overhyped, and allegations Democratic nominee Joe Biden is corrupt. The pitch has yet to prove effective, at least according to public opinion polls — and many Republican strategists are frustrated. They are convinced Trump is alienating women and college-educated suburban voters, jeopardizing both his reelection and that of GOP candidates down ticket.
But some Republican insiders in key Midwestern swing states say Trump’s relentless focus on satisfying his most committed supporters just might deliver a late-breaking comeback.
An analysis conducted by David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report found 4.9 million eligible white voters without a college degree did not vote in 2016 in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. White working-class voters are the bulwark of Trump’s base. If the president can draw more of them to the polls, he might offset defections in the suburbs and from other blocs that propelled him to the White House but are now backing Biden.
“There are a lot of folks who don’t pay close attention to the nuances of politics,” said Charlie Gerow, a Republican operative in Pennsylvania. “They vote on feelings and instincts, especially about the candidates themselves. Many of these people love Donald Trump because he speaks their language.”
“This is a group that hasn’t voted regularly because of their disenchantment,” Gerow continued. “They’re for Trump. If he can get them to the polls, it’s a huge advantage.”
Many political analysts, not to mention Republican strategists, are skeptical that this strategy is viable. Wasserman wrote that Trump would have to “boost non-college white turnout by about 5 [percentage] points — from 55% to 60% nationally — just to offset the impact of their dwindling share of the electorate and get back to the same 306 electoral votes he won in 2016.”
Trump also needs to overcome Biden’s improved performance with critical voting blocs, compared to Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee four years ago.
As Wasserman tweeted Thursday: According to recent national polls, Biden is winning white voters with a college degree by 22 points; Clinton won them by 12 points. Clinton lost white voters without a college degree by 29 points; Biden is losing them by 19 points. Clinton lost seniors by 5 points; Biden is winning them by 10 points. Clinton won women by 14 points; Biden is wining them by 25 points.
Brian Reisinger, a Republican operative in Wisconsin, said Trump could compensate for these challenges by luring blue-collar voters who did not vote in 2016 to the polls. But he said the strategy might fall short if he cannot balance his messaging and avoid losing a woman, a suburban dweller, or a voter age 65 and older for every new white working-class voter he creates.
“The reality is that while Republicans are facing challenges in some key suburban areas, there are more voters in rural and exurban areas who can be won,” Reisinger said. “The trick will be maximizing that rural and small-town vote without it being too much at the expense of high-end suburbs.”
On the eve of the second and final debate, Biden led Trump by 7.9 points nationally in the RealClearPolitics average. The former vice president was ahead by 4.1 points in the smaller group of decisive battleground states. The Trump campaign is professing confidence that the president is closing the gap in ways that the survey data is missing.
For instance, Republicans are pointing out that the GOP has closed the registration gap with Democrats in states such as Florida and Pennsylvania. Democrats still lead but by less than they did four years ago. Republicans highlight Trump’s packed campaign rallies, where he puts on a show for his base that features many of his sharpest jabs — at Biden, the media, and even politicians in his own party.
“Over time, the stability of Trump’s base is his strength,” said Brian Lanza, a Republican operative who advised the president’s 2016 campaign. “He loves fighting back, and his base expects it now.”
Republicans say the rallies serve a second purpose. The events draw spectators who have not voted before or recently. Their attendance allows the Trump campaign an opportunity to identify them and turn them into new voters for the president.
