Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is getting some much-needed support in his home state, so much so that it has one polling guru saying it’s “plausible” that New Mexico may just go his way in the November election.
While he doesn’t skip past Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, a poll released Sunday by the Albuquerque Journal shows the former New Mexico governor receiving the support of 24 percent of the state’s voters in a four-way matchup that also includes the Green Party’s Jill Stein. Clinton leads the field with 35 percent, with Trump close behind with 31 percent.
The poll of 501 likely New Mexico voters, conducted Sept. 27 to 29 by landline and cellphone, has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
It’s one of Johnson’s best showings yet in a state that hasn’t had much polling this election season. It should serve as a boost the leading third-party candidate is seeking to reach the 15 percent national polling threshold he needs to cross in order to qualify for one of the two remaining presidential debates.
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver tweeted Sunday that the new poll makes “plausible” a map that shows New Mexico going to Johnson on Election Day. It would deadlock the Electoral College between Clinton and Trump, who would receive 267 and 266 electoral votes respectively. A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to clinch the election.
A new poll puts @GovGaryJohnson at 24% in New Mexico, which makes this map plausible. Electoral College deadlock. https://t.co/EpKzUmfzUP pic.twitter.com/kgqpWlLuIK
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 2, 2016
Plausible is not likely though. Our model gives Johnson a 2-3% chance of winning NM, but only an ~0.2% chance that causes a deadlock.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 2, 2016
But, Silver cautioned, while it’s possible, such a result is “not likely” because the FiveThirtyEight model gives Johnson only a 2 to 3 percent chance of winning New Mexico, and about a 0.2 percent change that causes a deadlock.
