One U.S. intelligence agency assesses with “moderate confidence” that the coronavirus most likely emerged from a Chinese government lab in Wuhan, while four U.S. spy agencies and the National Intelligence Council believe with “low confidence” that COVID-19 most likely has a natural origin, with other parts of the U.S. intelligence community remaining on the fence.

The one unnamed spy agency leaning toward the Wuhan lab theory with “moderate confidence” assessed that “the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling” by the Wuhan Institute of Virology, according to an unclassified report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. ODNI said that those analysts “give weight to the inherently risky nature of work on coronaviruses.”