Where candidate Trump rewrote conventional wisdom and the electoral map in finding a path to the White House through the Democrats’ blue wall, so his opponent now sees a chance to pick up once reliably Republican Sun Belt states.
It may be too soon to snatch Texas, but Joe Biden’s strategists believe Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s 2018 midterm win shows Arizona is in reach.
They have their sights set on Phoenix and its suburbs, home to about 60% of likely voters, which, win or lose, will have an outsize impact on the outcome.
For Biden’s camp, that means a campaign based on the president’s record in office. For President Trump’s campaign, it means trying to change the conversation to immigration, with ads warning that Democratic nominee Biden is too soft on protecting the border, which runs for about 370 miles through the state.
Democratic strategists believe trends are running in their direction. Changing demographics — a younger population, an influx of arrivals from California, and a growing Hispanic population — are changing Arizona.
David Bergstein, who worked with Sinema’s campaign and is now battleground states communications director for the Democrats, said the state is a top target.
“Arizona is a major defensive liability for Trump,” he said. “And it’s trending away from him because suburban voters, particularly in places like Maricopa County, are repulsed by Trump’s record on issues like healthcare, his attacks on veterans and military families, and, most of all, by his total failure to respond to the coronavirus.”
“Democrats are on offense here and making a major play for the state.”
Arizona has not gone blue in a presidential contest since 1996. But the numbers have been trending Biden’s way after convention season. Although the Democratic nominee lagged 2 points behind the president in a Morning Consult poll before Democrats kicked off their largely virtual convention, he moved 10 points ahead shortly after.
Among the speakers was former Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, an anti-Trump Republican who retired two years ago but offered a public endorsement of Biden.
Key will be winning the Hispanic vote. Maricopa County has the fourth-biggest Latino population in the country, with about 1.4 million people.
Across the state, the Latino population has grown by more than 400,000 since 2010 and today makes up almost one-third of the total population.
Republicans hope their conservative stance on abortion will chime with a largely religious set of voters. At a rally in the border town of Yuma in August, Trump also used his border wall to appeal to Hispanic voters.
“Half of all Border Patrol agents are Hispanic. Nobody better understands the border than Hispanics,” he said. “They don’t want bad people coming into the country taking their jobs, taking their homes.”
The Trump campaign says it has a well-developed ground game and that internal polling shows a 2-point lead for Trump.
Trump 2020 assistant press secretary Sarah Hasse said: “The Trump campaign has had a permanent presence in Arizona since 2016, discussing President Trump’s wins for the Grand Canyon State. In stark contrast, Joe Biden’s socialist agenda includes open borders, $4 trillion in new taxes, and increased energy costs.”
“Come November, Arizonans will reject Biden’s 50-year record of failure and vote for four more years of job creation, border security, and free and fair trade deals.”
