California’s 47th Congressional District race will offer coastal Orange County voters a stark ideological choice.
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Democratic Rep. Katie Porter is seeking reelection for the seat newly reconfigured due to redistricting. In November, she’ll face former Assemblyman Scott Baugh, an attorney who led his party’s caucus in Sacramento in the late 1990s.
Porter favors stronger regulation of banks and other financial institutions. The former law professor has, since winning her seat in 2018, become known for her searing questions in committee hearings of financial executives and others. Baugh, meanwhile, is a traditional conservative, calling for lower taxes and less government regulation.
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Republicans are eyeing the seat in their quest to win a House majority. Republicans in November need to net five seats in the 435-member chamber to reclaim the majority the party lost in 2018.
The race will also test how much Orange County has changed politically. Orange County, just south of Los Angeles County along the Pacific Coast, was once one of the most Republican bastions in the country. President Ronald Reagan once called it “the place where good Republicans go to die.”
But shifting demographics and California’s deep-blue nature have changed that considerably. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was the first presidential candidate to win Orange County since 1936. President Joe Biden built on that Democratic advantage four years later. And the area’s congressional district is now split between the parties, a far cry from the days of Republican dominance among its representation in Washington.
Porter, who currently represents the 45th District in Orange County, chose to seek reelection instead in the new 47th District after her own district became friendlier to Republicans in the state’s redistricting process. But in an interview with the Washington Examiner, Baugh seemed undeterred by the 47th District’s slight Democratic lean.
“Well, the registration favors Democrats by about a point-and-a-half, and then there’s a large swath of no party preference or independents,” Baugh said. “The path to victory is to turn out the Republicans in the fall and then capture a majority of the no-party preference.”
Baugh argued that Biden’s lagging approval ratings and voter concerns about inflation will drive Republicans to the polls in November, which will help his campaign even in a slightly Democratic district.
“The way we do that is pretty simple,” he said. “Katie Porter has never been defined or even exposed for what her beliefs are in this district. First of all, she hasn’t represented two-thirds of the district. And so that’s all new to her. Secondly, the first time she ran, she didn’t have a record.”
Baugh argued voters who previously had not been represented by Porter would not like her record on issues such as government spending or immigration, and she was elected in tough election cycles for Republicans.
“In 2022, there are three things that will dramatically change what’s happened in the last two years. No. 1, she has a record. No. 2, I’ll have sufficient money to expose that record. And No. 3, this is a great Republican year,” he said.
The Porter campaign did not respond to a request for comment on its outlook on the race.
Both the Republican and Democratic congressional campaign arms are signaling their involvement in the race: The National Republican Campaign Committee has designated Baugh, 59, as a member of its “Young Guns” program for additional support in competitive races. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, meanwhile, added Porter, 48, to its “Frontline” incumbent protection program.
“We must ensure Rep. Porter has the resources necessary to keep CA-47 blue,” the DCCC website reads.
While Baugh has a not insubstantial $1 million cash on hand per elections records, Porter has more than $18 million.
Democrats are also eager to defend Porter’s seat, as state Democrats see her as a likely Senate candidate if and when Sen. Dianne Feinstein retires. Feinstein, 89, is not widely expected to seek reelection in 2024. Should Porter lose reelection to the House, it would likely hurt her chances in a prospective Senate race.
Asked about his positions on a number of issues on which Porter is campaigning, including gun violence and reproductive rights, Baugh said voters ask him about “inflation and crime and parental choice in schools.”
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“Their ideology is forcing inflation through the roof, is forcing gas prices through the roof,” he said. “And they’re setting us up for some long-term problems in this country, which is why I think the American people are saying no in all the polling — they’re saying we want something different.”
