For Republicans, losing the White House and watching Democrats pile up bigger majorities in the Senate and House was bad enough. But there was another painful downside to the 2008 election. Republicans have been practically driven out of an entire section of the country: the Northeast.
With the defeat of Republican Chris Shays of Connecticut, Republicans now have no House members in New England. Before the 2006 election, they had five–three in Connecticut and two in New Hampshire.
And Republican trouble continued as well in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, and extended into Ohio and Michigan. Republicans thought 2006 was a bad year in New York, but their losing streak continued with the three more House seats going to Democrats. They also lost at least one House in Pennsylvania, one in New Jersey, two in Ohio, and one in Michigan.
What’s the problem? Most of these losses, like the ones two years ago, have come in marginally Republican districts, ones that often elected moderate Republicans in the past, Republicans like Shays. Now these districts have become hostile to Republicans of any ideological stripe.
When things go wrong nationally for Republicans, these are the seats that topple. In more conservative House districts–in the South, for instance–Republicans have managed to hang on.
What exactly has gone wrong? Two things. The first is the party’s image, which has suffered because of an unpopular Republican president, scandals in Congress, and a party the media claims is too conservative. The other is the sour political mood in the country caused by a weak economy, the financial meltdown, and the feeling the nation is headed in the wrong direction.
Some states in the Northeast have simply become more liberal and thus more Democratic. New York and New Hampshire are examples of this. For the first time in 40 years, Democrats captured the state senate in New York. And in New Hampshire, Republican Sen. John Sununu lost to the same Democrat he defeated in 2002, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen.
Republican trouble extended also to moderate districts outside the Northeast. Republicans lost the suburban Virginia seat outside Washington, D.C., that had been held for 14 years by moderate Tom Davis, who retired. They also lost the seat in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and may lose one in Seattle, Washington.
A possible Republican response to its problem in the Northeast and in moderate districts might to elevate moderates to positions of leadership in Congress and in the party hierarchy. But there are no longer many to choose from.
Republican House member Mark Kirk of Illinois might fit the bill. He was regarded as an endangered incumbent but he won re-election handily. Kirk has developed an agenda for electing Republicans in suburban districts like his one outside Chicago.
Meanwhile, Republicans are likely to replace national chairman Mike Duncan soon. And a major task of the new chairman will simply be to put the party back on the political map in the Northeast.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
