Donald Trump is making abundantly clear in the wake of the Orlando terror attack that there will be no general election pivot by his campaign.
The presumptive Republican nominee ignored political convention in the primary. He used sharp rhetoric, offered provocative solutions and occasionally peddled old conspiracy theories to bolster his positions and overwhelm competitors.
Trump’s response to the jihadist strike on a gay nightclub in central Florida that left 49 victims dead and scores wounded was no different.
The New York businessman congratulated himself for predicting the carnage, suggested that President Obama might have somehow been involved and reaffirmed his support for temporarily banning Muslims from entering the U.S.
Many Republicans were hoping Trump would drop the provocative behavior as he turned his attention to the fall and Hillary Clinton, particularly after the backlash caused by his racially charged attacks on a federal judge.
But in the two days following Orlando, Trump recommitted to brash, explosive politicking.
The big test ahead is whether Trump’s approach to a national security crisis appeals more to a politically diverse fall electorate than Clinton’s traditional and measured — though hardly apolitical — tone.
“I don’t think the self-congratulatory stuff hurts Trump at all. People expect that from him. It’s part of his campaign persona,” said Jim Dornan, a Republican political strategist. “But he really needs to stay away from the conspiracy theories. He’s already got those voters.”
Omar Mateen, 29, an American Muslim who was born and raised in the U.S., went on a shooting rampage inside Pulse, a gay nightclub in Orlando, Fla., early Sunday morning using legally purchased automatic weapons.
The ethnic Afghan pledged allegiance to the Islamic State prior to the attack, and the terror group claimed responsibility for the strike. Mateen was killed by law enforcement, but not before he murdered 49 and injured more than 50 others.
Through a series of media interviews, tweets, and a prepared speech on national security delivered in Manchester, N.H., on Tuesday Trump obliterated the rules of conventional political discourse in the immediate aftermath of an attack on Americans or U.S. interests.
Trump did propose a vast overhaul U.S. immigration policy to keep out Muslims and other individuals from countries with a history of terrorism as a means to prevent future domestic attacks.
But Trump, beginning within hours of the attack, during Tuesday’s speech and after, specifically blamed Orlando on the incompetence of President Obama and Clinton, who served as his first secretary of state. He twisted certain facts of current U.S. policy to fit his narrative and insinuated that American Muslims are refusing to report terror plotters in their midst.
“I want us all to work together, including in partnership with our Muslim communities. But Muslim communities must cooperate with law enforcement and turn in the people who they know are bad — and they do know where they are,” Trump said, toward the end of his speech.
Republicans hoping for a more “presidential” and serious Trump have been disappointed by his reaction. They fear not only losing the White House to Clinton, but that their nominee’s perceived missteps will drag their House and Senate majorities down with him.
“Most Republicans are doing their very best to convince themselves that Trump could do the job of president. His initial Twitter reaction to the Orlando shooting has to be considered a serious setback in those efforts,” said a Republican insider, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly.
The Democrats, led by Obama and Clinton, are using the Orlando attack for political purposes of their own.
Democrats are reviving attempts to push for more gun control laws they have long sought but failed to get past the Republicans in Congress. And they’re casting their relationship with the LGBT community in a favorable light compared to Republicans, who, for instance, are largely opposed to same-sex marriage.
But in tweets, media interviews and a speech delivered from Cleveland on Tuesday to discuss counter terrorism strategy post-Orlando, Clinton’s tone was politically mild, compared to Trump’s, and fit the textbook of how politicians usually respond in the immediate aftermath of a crisis.
Clinton didn’t mention Trump by name as she presented a strategy for combating terrorism that was an obvious rejoinder to her Republican opponent; she cautioned against demonizing all Muslims for the sins committed by Islamic extremists and she closed her address with a call to bipartisanship.
“I remember how it felt, on the day after 9/11, and I bet many of you do as well. Americans from all walks of life rallied together with a sense of common purpose on September the 12th,” Clinton said. “I was a senator from New York. There was a Republican president, Republican governor and a Republican mayor. We did not attack each other. We worked with each other.”
Still unknown is how voters are going to synthesize what happened in Orlando, and what factor Obama’s actions going forward will have on the Clinton vs. Trump contest.
Republican strategists, even those who are not big fans of Trump, are cautioning against under-estimating the appeal of his tone and proposals. Especially if the public views Obama, Clinton or both as inadequate in their response, Trump could benefit despite conduct and rhetoric that in any other campaign might have sunk his candidacy.
In the words of Clinton’s husband, former President Bill Clinton, “strong and wrong” usually beats “weak and right.”
But Democrats seem pretty convinced that Clinton is getting the better of Trump so far. They believe Clinton showed resolve in her response but proper political sensitivity befitting the moment, compared to Trump’s bluster and demagoguery.
“Trump’s response was terrible, essentially an ‘I told you so’ moment, seemingly drawing attention to his supposed foresight and not attention on the individuals killed and hurt, and their families,” said Ed Espinoza, a Democratic campaign strategist. “He also started attacking the president, and making the kind of statements that one expects to find on Twitter — just not from a guy seeking to be the leader of the free world.”
