The Republicans are poised to recapture the House majority after just four years in the minority, with opportunities to flip Democrat-represented districts expanding in 2022 seemingly by the day as the midterm election year commences.

House Republicans need to net five seats in the 435-member chamber to take control when lawmakers are sworn into office in January 2023 for the 118th Congress. But as 2021 comes to a close, poll after poll suggests a red wave is building: President Joe Biden’s average job approval rating sits at 44%, and Republicans lead the generic ballot by nearly 3 percentage points.