The Cook Political Report predicted Friday that Donald Trump will secure a majority of delegates to become the Republican nominee, and avoid a contested convention “barring some earth-shattering event in the final month of the primary calendar.”
The report said that in the wake of recent Trump victories, “The odds of a contested convention have dramatically declined.”
“Trump will be the Republican nominee without a contested convention,” the report said.
The Cook analysis said Trump is right where he needs to be in terms of delegates now, with 956 delegates. Cook had previously said Trump would need to be at 955 delegates at this point to get to the majority number of 1,237 by the convention.
“Right now, Trump has won 956 bound delegates. But if you include 32 additional ‘unbound’ delegates from Pennsylvania and other states that have publicly stated their support for Trump, Trump would only need 249 additional delegates — or 50 percent of the 502 remaining delegates — to reach 1,237. Sizing up the remaining states, he’s extremely likely to get there,” the analysis says.
“The RNC’s winner-take-all rules mean Trump is likely to continue to draw overwhelming delegate shares even if he wins simple pluralities in most of the remaining 10 states. Trump is likely to win all of New Jersey’s 51 delegates, and at this rate he’s likely to win the overwhelming share of delegates in California (172) and West Virginia (34). Those states alone provide 257 delegates — more than enough,” the analysis says.
