GOP nominee Donald Trump and Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte are poised to paint New Hampshire red in November, according to new polling of the Granite State.
Trump leads Hillary Clinton by about 9 percentage points, 47.9 percent-38.5 percent, and Ayotte trounces Gov. Maggie Hassan by nearly 8 points, 49 percent-41.4 percent, in the InsideSources/NH Journal poll.
The primary motivating factor in voters’ minds appears to be the state’s opioid epidemic. About 45 percent of New Hampshire voters had a positive view of Ayotte’s handling of the public health crisis, while nearly 23 percent of respondents held a negative view. Hassan, however, is underwater with voters on her handling of the opioid epidemic, as 37 percent of respondents held a positive view, and 40 percent had a negative view.
The New Hampshire senate race between Ayotte, the incumbent, and Hassan, the sitting governor, is expected to be competitive. If Trump’s lead materializes into electoral success, his momentum could steal crucial electoral votes that were reliably Democratic in 2012.
The poll represents a stunning departure from Real Clear Politics’ average of polls, which shows Ayotte with 0.6 percentage point lead over Hassan and Clinton with a 3.7-percentage-point lead on Trump. Whether the information proves to be an outlier or an initial indicator of a broader trend remains to be seen.
The polling was conducted via landline telephone, no cell phones, and the poll’s methodology could represent one reason for the poll’s unique results. The InsideSources/NH Journal poll surveyed 1,166 registered voters from July 19-21 with a 5.1 percentage point margin of error.
