A swath of House Democrats who won their seats in the 2018 “Blue Wave” now find themselves in tight races against Republican challengers sporting rising poll numbers and bulging campaign accounts.
Key races in Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Iowa are all up for grabs as freshman Democratic incumbents adapt to running during a cycle when President Trump heads their rivals’ tickets in districts where that could be a deciding factor.
The races are crucial to Republican efforts to win back the House majority they lost in 2018 after eight years. Republicans need to win about 19 seats to claim a House majority.
A rematch in Virginia’s 2nd District pits Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria against the district’s former congressman, Republican Scott Taylor, whom she beat in 2018. According to recent polling from the National Journal, Luria and Taylor are tied with 48% each. Four percent were undecided.
In New Jersey, Democrats control the state’s delegation in the House 10-2 after defeating several incumbents two years ago. But now, they’re facing their first reelection cycles in changed political circumstances.
In the state’s 3rd Congressional District, stretching from the Jersey Shore to the Philadelphia suburbs, first-term Democrat Rep. Andy Kim leads his Republican opponent David Richter by 3 points, according to a poll conducted by Basswood Research. The same poll found Trump leading presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by 3 points. Both are outcomes within the margin of error.
In the 7th District, which includes all of Hunterdon County and several leafy, suburban counties along the Pennsylvania state line, first-term Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski will face Tom Kean Jr., who is the minority leader of the New Jersey Senate. The National Republican Congressional Committee released a memo at the beginning of July showing Malinowski in a statistical dead heat with, at the time, an unnamed GOP challenger, presumably Kean.
Over in Pennsylvania’s 17th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb, who came into office in a 2018 special election, was out-raised last quarter by his Republican challenger, Sean Parnell.
Parnell, a U.S. Army combat veteran, raised $717,364 in the second quarter, while Lamb, a fellow military veteran, raised $444,184.
Lamb’s district, in Pittsburgh’s suburbs and exurbs, includes all of Beaver County and more of western and northern Allegheny County, as well as a portion of southwestern Butler County.
