President Joe Biden‘s foreign policy missteps in Afghanistan caused the public to question his competence and coincided with his initial tumble in job approval numbers.
Now Russia‘s war in Ukraine and OPEC+‘s decision to cut oil production are poised to have repercussions for next month’s midterm elections, with gas prices rising again in many parts of the country and overall inflation hardly getting better.
The rising cost of living is linked, in part, to the COVID-19 pandemic. But supply chains were also snarled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine before Saudi Arabia-led OPEC+ announced it would be slashing oil production by 2 million barrels a day from November, connecting foreign policy to this midterm cycle, according to Brookings Institution foreign policy research director Michael O’Hanlon.
BIDEN ‘REEVALUATING’ SAUDI ARABIA TIES AS DEMOCRATS RAIL AGAINST OPEC+ SNUB
“The world has really taken a big hit from this war, not just in terms of the moral repulsion that we all feel over what Russia is doing, but obviously in food and energy markets and sanctions against Russia,” O’Hanlon told the Washington Examiner. “That’s all going to be on Biden’s watch.”
Tumult in world affairs has made international concerns domestic issues in the 2022 midterm elections. Biden and Democrats were already at a disadvantage, with House Republicans needing to win only six seats in the 435-member chamber. And Senate Republicans have a decent chance at nabbing even a one-seat pickup, which would provide a majority in the chamber that’s now split 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote giving the Democrats control.
An unforgiving world stage
Troubled affairs abroad, and their ripple effects domestically, aren’t likely to help Biden and Democrats in the midterm elections.
“If inflation is occurring on Biden’s watch and, to some extent, it’s over policies that he had a certain hand in, even if he’s not fundamentally responsible and even if the Saudis are so prickly they might have done this anyway, Biden is still likely to get some of the blame,” O’Hanlon said, alluding to Biden’s domestic oil production agenda.
For O’Hanlon, Biden’s foreign policy blunders would play an even bigger role if he runs for reelection in 2024. If Biden seeks a second term, O’Hanlon contends Republican attack ads will portray Biden as “a weak leader” after his deadly withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could be used against him since his aides saw it “coming” and “couldn’t prevent it.”
“Whether it would be successful or not is a separate question, but the temptation is certainly going to be there,” O’Hanlon said of the likely criticism. “Just like an incumbent gets the blame or credit for the state of the economy, regardless of merit, the incumbent also gets a little bit of blame or credit for the state of the world.”
Foreign policy can have electoral consequences, according to presidential historian David Pietrusza, the author of Roosevelt Sweeps Nation: FDR’s 1936 Landslide and the Triumph of the Liberal Ideal. Sometimes it helps commanders in chief amid campaigns, such as the late Presidents William McKinley, Woodrow Wilson, and Franklin Roosevelt. In other cycles, it has hindered them, including the late President Harry Truman, who demurred from seeking reelection in 1952 amid the Korean War quagmire.
“All of which is significant, but for Joe Biden far less significant than his domestic challenges: inflation, crime, the border, a wildly fluctuating stock market,” Pietrusza said. “Unless Americans are getting killed or held captive between now and November, foreign policy concerns will remain secondary in voters’ minds.”
Energy prices in the United States spiked by 23.8% during the 12 months ending in August, and the cost of food rose by 11.4% during the same time period. September’s inflation report will be published on Oct. 13, but gas is now averaging $3.90 per gallon nationwide, according to AAA.
The U.S. economy may also be affected by how the United Kingdom and Europe weather this winter amid Russian oil and natural gas sanctions introduced in response to the war in Ukraine and possible sabotage along Russia-Europe conduit Nord Stream 1 as price cap negotiations proceed.
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre ripped OPEC+’s update as “shortsighted” amid the Russia-Ukraine war. Jean-Pierre said Biden had directed Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm to consider “any additional responsible actions” related to domestic oil production and that he would consult with Congress with respect to countering OPEC’s “control” over the sector.
“It’s clear that OPEC+ is aligning with, with Russia,” she told reporters on Air Force One. “This decision by OPEC+ is one purported self-interest, is a mistake, and it’s misguided.”
As Biden sends Ukraine another security and humanitarian assistance package, this time worth $625 million, he is simultaneously facing problems with China, Iran, and North Korea. Tensions between Biden and China escalated when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi traveled to Taiwan this summer, and North Korea has picked up the pace of its missile testing program after Vice President Kamala Harris‘s trip to the region this month.
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“They sometimes have overdone the rhetoric, like saying China’s committing genocide in Xinjiang province,” O’Hanlon said, though he agreed with Biden’s stance against China for its aggression toward Taiwan. “But at least Biden’s maintained enough communication that he hasn’t let the relationship completely fall apart.”
“He’s been cautious to a flaw on North Korea, where I don’t really see any creativity in the diplomacy,” O’Hanlon added of Biden.
