The sad news that Vincent Gray would challenge Mayor Adrian Fenty showed up in my e-mail before he announced yesterday. The message said “Vince Gray for Mayor Is Now Following You on Twitter!”
Since I don’t tweet much, following me won’t lead anywhere. But he can read here why I am rather despondent over his decision. Vincent Gray has been a terrific public servant, but his days are numbered. He will have to give up his chair of the city council to take on Fenty. And he is sure to lose.
Here’s why I predict Gray is a goner.
Before a politician decides to mount a campaign, it is wise to build a campaign team and figure out how to raise money. From my quick check of Gray’s political apparatus, I am not sure he has done either.
It appears that Gray’s chief strategist is one Vernon Hawkins. It was Hawkins who was calling around in recent days to inform D.C.’s political elite that Gray was about to announce. It was Hawkins who has been by Gray’s side as he met with potential supporters.
Hawkins has a history in D.C. political and governing circles, and it’s not very pretty.
Marion Barry appointed Hawkins to be director of his Human Services Agency in his fourth term in 1994. That was Barry’s last time as mayor, after he was jailed for the cocaine rap. That was also when Congress took over the city and put it under the financial control board, because the city was hurtling toward bankruptcy.
The chief reason for the city’s massive sea of red ink was overspending by the Human Services Agency. One of the financial control board’s first acts was to demand the resignation of Vernon Hawkins. Barry fought for Hawkins. He had been in the city government for 30 years. That would make him part of the problem. The control board forced Hawkins out in 1996. “The war is over,” Barry said at the time.
When Gray ran for city council chairman in 2006 Hawkins went to war as Gray’s political strategist He worked on Gray’s transition team. Now he’s a pillar of Gray’s mayoral campaign.
Hawkins is a poster boy for Barry’s style of governing. Ditto Peggy Cooper Cafritz, another Gray supporter. She was school board president when the public schools were in horrible condition.
On the money side, Fenty has all but scraped the table clean. He’s squeezed every dollar from the business community and amassed nearly $4 million. If they give to Gray, they risk Fenty’s retribution.
What about money from the unions, especially the teachers, who would love to defeat Fenty? My sources in the National Education Association say it can’t contribute to Gray. The American Federation for Teachers can’t match $4 million. Gray can’t expect much from the AFL-CIO or the public employees unions. He’ll be lucky to raise six figures.
Without a crackerjack political team and money, I am afraid Gray will go down, and the city will lose a great council chairman. Such a shame.
E-mail Harry Jaffe at [email protected].
