WE BEGIN WITH bad news from California: Less than 1,300 hours remain until the state’s historic recall election. That means only 54 more days of Arnoldmania–or, roughly 78,000 minutes until the incumbent Gov. Gray Davis finishes the year’s second most remarkable political collapse (unfortunately for recall fans, there are no statues of Davis waiting to be toppled in Sacramento–just plenty of bad statutes that should be struck down). Thirteen-hundred hours may seem a daunting figure, but it’s not. In California political terms, it’s a nanosecond. Campaigns here run in two-year cycles, from the time they’re launched to when the ballots are eventually cast. By contrast, the recall is a two-month dash to the finish line. Sadly, come mid-October, we’ll resume our normal political reporting and turn to the latest from Iowa and New Hampshire.
Recall is a gift from the political gods–a terrific story line, and possibly a nationwide wake-up call for lackadaisical incumbents. But for Arnold Schwarzenegger, the dynamics of this race are both a gift and a challenge. The gift: Arnold for Governor, limited to a 60-day run, is all about madness and momentum. The theory goes something like this: Start with a shock announcement, let the media buzz reach a crescendo, then surf that wave straight through to October 7. No candidate has ever pulled this off. Then again, there’s never been either an election like this, or a candidate with drawing power like Ah-nuld.
That’s the up-side. The down-side for the Schwarzenegger campaign is that Arnold will find himself under constant media pressure, without any respite. If you’ve never met Sean Walsh, Schwarzenegger’s communications director, you should both envy the man and send a prayer–along with a spare cell phone to handle the media calls. Walsh is flacking for the hottest candidate on the planet, every press secretary’s fantasy. However, with each passing day, the pressure grows on the campaign to answer the following questions: When will Arnold make himself available to the media? When does Arnold’s campaign begin in earnest? When will Arnold start talking policy? If you think that sounds like a bunch of 8-year-olds asking “are we there yet?”–welcome to the recall.
Arnold faces media that aren’t hostile, just internally conflicted. Reporters will soon discover that Schwarzenegger is personable, with an old-world charm. Indeed, his campaign could become the biggest love-fest since John McCain’s “Straight Talk Express.” Print reporters, in particular, will groove on the ancillary benefits of this experience–like getting TV gigs, book deals, and steady page-one exposure. If Arnold is as savvy as advertised, he’ll play to the press’s vanity by calling reporters’ children, leaving greeting messages on their answering machines, handing out stogies, and so forth.
Don’t expect all reporters to fall prey to Stockholm Syndrome, but watch the press struggle as it strives to strike a happy balance between torment and torrid love affair. A reporter who covered Schwarzenegger’s surprise “Tonight Show” announcement likens it to being tugged in three directions: “I’ve got my editor yelling for something other than what everyone else is writing, his opponents telling me not to let Arnold get away with the one-liners, and my kid asking for his autograph.”
So how does Arnold not just meet the press, but overcome it over the next 50-plus days? Some thoughts:
(1) Pressure valves. If the Schwarzenegger campaign is to be a piece of finely tuned Teutonic engineering like the candidate, the sensible approach is to think in terms of releasing steam, not generating energy. Getting attention isn’t the problem with Arnold, it’s how to keep the campers happy. Print reporters will demand white papers and policy statements. The broadcast media will want exclusive sit-downs and clean shots. Arnold should treat the TV reporters like the White House press corps–assembling them in gaggles, allowing them to compete for attention at press avails, and offering exclusives only on a rotating basis and according to California media markets so as to avoid fairness complaints. And so the candidate doesn’t get an “imperious” rap, let him do the occasional impromptu interview in the back of the bus or plane.
(2) The candidate speaks to the people, not the press. Print reporters want Arnold’s thoughts on issues A-Z, from abortion rights to zinfandel harvests. Their appetite is voracious and limitless. But what does Schwarzenegger really need to address between now and October 7? California’s economy, the state budget, those select “wedge” issues that define candidates in the Golden State (for Arnold, embellishing his positions on abortion, the environment, gun control, and social tolerance), plus a thumbnail of what he would have done differently than Governor Davis. George Gorton, Schwarzenegger’s chief strategist, calls it a “character” election and he’s right. Voters will go with Arnold based on his personality and their comfort zone with handing over the keys to a new driver, not because the man wowed editorial boards with ten-point plans for saving banana slugs.
(3) In a game of hardball, toss in a curveball. On Wednesday, reporters were surprised when billionaire investor Warren Buffet endorsed Schwarzenegger’s candidacy. It’s a positive story–if you want to convince voters that you can return California to a profit, trot out a friend who knows how to make a buck. It also kept the press at bay during that day’s news cycle. But it was a surprise to reporters just beginning to know Schwarzenegger’s friends and acquaintances. It could also be a preview of coming attractions. The combined worlds of Arnold and Maria are stocked with friends who are rich, famous, and fabulous–people you normally don’t find endorsing Republican candidates. Such as the actor Rob (ex-“West Wing”) Lowe, who became an Arnold convert during last year’s Proposition 49 campaign. Call it “shock and awe.” This roll-out of friends and followers educates the public on SchwarzenShriver’s reach across California, America, and beyond.
Here’s one final piece of advice for Arnold: Don’t let him read articles like this one. Like Ronald Reagan, Schwarzenegger’s talent is his optimism, his enthusiasm, and his connection to ordinary citizens.
To think: only 1,300 more hours to over-think a simple proposition.
Bill Whalen is Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution, where he follows California and national politics.
