I noted yesterday that opinions in the presidential race are more fluid and softer than usual–resulting in a high degree of variability and volatility in the polls. Today, Rasmussen released this new survey that further underscores that point. According to its most recent poll, about twice as many likely voters are “uncommitted” when given a choice between the two major candidates as they were at this point in the race in 2004.
For a variety of reasons unique to 2008, both candidates produce small degrees of uncertainty among potential voters. McCain generates some reluctance among Republicans because they feel cross-pressured by their desire to support the party’s nominee and his maverick positions on a handful of issues. Obama also engenders uncertainty because many still don’t believe they know him well enough or trust he has the requisite experience to be commander in chief. Some of those polled will state a preference for Obama or McCain–even if those inclinations are weak and changeable. That’s one reason why these survey numbers seem to shift around a bit. Rasmussen’s observation about the number of people without firm commitments at this point in the race helps explain this daily volatility.
