Negotiations between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia over a nuclear energy deal appear to be on hiatus after the oil-rich kingdom admitted to murdering journalist Jamal Khashoggi last month, forcing the administration to reconsider its relationship with the Gulf powerhouse.
“It seems like the Saudis have suspended the bidding process, which was due to be about complete by now,” said Andrew Holland, chief operating officer at the nonpartisan American Security Project in Washington. “Certainly, if the bid happened today, I think Congress would force the White House to cease cooperation.”
The White House has been tight-lipped in discussing the status of U.S.-Saudi negotiations, even as top Democrats and Republicans urge the president to back out of, or suspend, the deal. Most recently, five Republican senators sent Trump a letter urging him to stop negotiations in light of the Saudi government’s involvement in the death of Khashoggi, a U.S. resident and Saudi Arabian.
“The White House has frequent conversations with members of Congress on foreign policy issues, but we do not comment on specific topics or letters,” a White House National Security Council spokesman told the Washington Examiner.
Other White House sources further demurred when asked about the status of a Saudi nuclear deal. A Democratic Senate aide said the letters sent by lawmakers on the nuclear deal have gone unanswered by the administration.
Even Rick Perry, who earlier had led negotiations with Saudi Arabia and had been bullish about the deal, has been quiet on its status after the Khashoggi murder. The Energy Department did not respond to several requests for comment.
Although the Khashoggi murder has moved somewhat to the back burner in the wake of the November midterm elections, it is only just simmering.
It is expected to come back to the fore soon, as Congress returns and the Democrat-controlled House hashes out its oversight agenda for next year, which will likely include Khashoggi and the nuclear deal.
“We may even see more scrutiny because of the change in the House,” said Scott Jones, nonresident fellow at the Stimson Center. “We may see more committee-level scrutiny of the Saudi relationship now that the Democrats are controlling the House.”
There had already been increased scrutiny by Congress because of the proliferation risks inherent in providing nuclear capabilities to a well-funded Mideast power. The tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia after the murder just add to the problems that the nuclear deal presents to Congress. The Saudi war against Yemen is another complicating factor, according to Jones.
Even if negotiations aren’t completely stalled, the administration would be smart to slow roll the talks, at a minimum, at least until the investigations over Khashoggi’s death are finished, Jones said.
“I don’t think we’ll see a stake driven through the heart of the prospect for the deal,” Jones added. The nuclear energy deal could be used as leverage to get Saudi Arabia to adjust its behavior.
“This is definitely something that can help facilitate a change in policy,” Jones said. “I think there is an emerging consensus that we need to examine the relationship with Saudi [Arabia],” he said, particularly with respect to arms exports and overall foreign policy.
But the bottom line seems to be that the negotiations are in limbo since the murder.
“The Khashoggi murder has thrown a wrench into the whole process,” said Fred McGoldrick, a former diplomat and top U.S. negotiator on nuclear energy cooperation agreements. “I doubt we will see any progress on the U.S. negotiations until and unless this issue is fully and satisfactorily resolved.”
At the same time, the Saudis are impatient to advance their Vision 2030 agenda to diversify their economy away from oil. They are under pressure to show they are moving forward and that countries are willing to invest after the murder.
Industry experts say recent actions by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman are indicative of the kingdom’s eagerness to get on with business. Last week, he held an event to lay the foundation stone at the site of the first test reactor to be built in Saudi Arabia.
The test reactor provides the foundation to later build a large-scale nuclear power reactor that the U.S. would want the contract to build.
Many believe the crown prince’s actions were a signal to the U.S. and others that it is still open for business.
“The Saudis have several suppliers who are eager to meet their nuclear plans,” said McGoldrick. “The U.S. is still in the game but faces high obstacles.”
Jones said the Chinese, Russians, and the South Koreans are all seriously being considered by the Saudis to build the test reactor.
McGoldrick says that the nonproliferation standards that Congress wants applied to the Saudi deal could also result in the U.S. losing out on the job to Russia or others.
“Many in the U.S., including prominent figures in Congress, are insisting that the U.S. require the Saudis to forswear the acquisition of enrichment and reprocessing capabilities because they produce nuclear materials that are directly usable in nuclear weapons,” he said.
The Saudis are refusing to accept these restrictions, which other competing supplier states do not require. That places the U.S. at a “competitive disadvantage,” which has negotiations between the U.S. and the kingdom “at a standstill.”
