I had an interesting conversation with a highly-placed friend from the opposite side of the political fence regarding the Governor’s ABC privatization plan. We talked about the nuts and bolts, but it’s the politics of the thing that are most fascinating, and largely because the Democrats are, as my friend said, “brain dead” on the whole matter.
The political play might go something like this…
Republican House members have aired concerns about money. They don’t want the state to come up short on any privatization deal. That’s sent the Governor’s team scrambling to either raise or create a number of taxes and fees that will make the numbers work and corral the skittish in the GOP. This isn’t a big bar to clear, even though it does weaken any benefits consumers might reap from a true privatization.
But there may still be some Republican doubters in the House. The Governor approaches those members and says “I need your vote on this one and in return, I’ll be there for you (checkbook in hand) in the next election.”
McDonnell gets his measure through the House because the GOP doesn’t want to embarrass their guy. It goes to the Senate, where Democrats, following majority leader Dick Saslaw’s line, vote the measure down.
McDonnell then is able to say he and the GOP worked hard to do what was right for the state and consumers, but Democrats stood in the way. And because of Democratic intransigence, there will be no $500 million in new monies available for key transportation projects.
Democrats counter that a serious road plan requires a tax increase. The Governor responds that the Democrats are merely reverting to type — tax first, even in a recession, and ask questions later. It’s exactly the sort of behavior the national Democrats and the White House have peddled for the last two years. How’s that working out for them?
So…ABC privatization fails, but McDonnell and the GOP win and get an issue for the 2011 races.
And guess what? Some of it’s already coming to pass.
If Democrats were smart, though, they might demand that the Governor’s plan must be put to a referendum. Del. Bob Marshall has already proposed such an idea, though it’s been greeted with deafening silence. Putting the idea to a referendum would allow Democrats to beat McDonnell at the ballot box on an issue that doesn’t really excite the public (or so my friend believes). Such a win would give Democrats a bit of energy and confidence — two things they desperately need — and have the possible bonus of splitting the GOP base as social conservatives vote their conscience against wider liquor sales.
Or Senate Democrats could embrace their inner nihilist and pass McDonnell’s proposal and then watch him try to implement it. There are so many moving parts, so much to be decided, that it could bog his administration down for the rest of the term.
I’m still very much of the camp which believes that privatization is long overdue and ought to proceed regardless of the pitfalls (or the hit to the state’s income). Government has no business selling booze and ought to get out as soon as possible. To argue otherwise implies that because the state makes so much money off liquor, it ought to take over other businesses as well and milk them for the public good — say automobiles, banks, insurance companies, brokerage houses, mortgage firms…oh, wait…
